The Black Sea: A live fire zone for GNSS interference

While Russia’s electronic warfare systems have long targeted Ukrainian military operations, the Black Sea has increasingly emerged as a gray zone for GNSS denial, impacting civil aviation, international shipping, and regional infrastructure.

From mid-2024 onward, reports of GPS jamming and spoofing persisted in the Romanian Flight Information Region (FIR), over the Danube Delta, and across the maritime zones surrounding Crimea, and these effects are not confined to the battlefield. Civilian aircraft have reported false positioning, maritime AIS systems have shown ships “teleporting” inland or spinning in circles, and scientific missions have directly recorded spoofing signals at high altitude.

The scale and consistency of this interference suggest that the Black Sea is no longer just a border zone – it is a live, contested arena in Russia’s wider information warfare campaign.

Summary

• Location: Black Sea coastlines and maritime FIRs, including Romanian airspace, western Crimea, and the western Black Sea
• Activity: Persistent GNSS spoofing and jamming affecting aircraft, vessels, and scientific sensors
• Date highlight: Spring 2025 – consistent GNSS degradation observed by commercial pilots, scientific missions, and national defense authorities
• Impact zones: Southeast Romanian FIR, Constanța coast, Danube Delta, Snake Island corridor, offshore platforms, maritime traffic lanes

Real-world incident

In late 2024 and into spring 2025, reports of GPS interference in the Black Sea region surged. Romanian officials, aviation observers, and civilian monitoring platforms all documented increasing spoofing and jamming activity, most of which originated from Russian-controlled Crimea.

Scientific confirmation of high-altitude spoofing (Aug 2024 – Feb 2025)

In August 2024, the Romanian firm InSpace Engineering launched a high-altitude balloon from Constanța to monitor GNSS spectrum quality over the Black Sea. The payload recorded persistent jamming across all GNSS bands and a definitive spoofing event at ~11 km altitude, where the reported position abruptly shifted toward Simferopol in Russian-occupied Crimea.

Flight data confirmed the balloon never physically deviated from its path, pointing to external signal manipulation. The team later published spectrograms showing full-band interference across L1, L2, and L5, marking the first scientific confirmation of high-altitude GNSS spoofing in NATO airspace.

Regional escalation and independent monitoring (August 2024 – April 2025)

Between late summer 2024 and spring 2025, GNSS spoofing in the region reached new levels of scale and severity. According to OPSGROUP’s 2024 GPS Spoofing Report, the global aviation community observed a 500% increase in spoofing incidents, peaking at an average of 1,500 spoofed flights per day.

While the report did not attribute activity to a specific region, Romanian and Bulgarian pilots began filing real-time reports in February of signal degradation, false GNSS positioning, and sudden navigation dropouts while flying along the Black Sea coast. These incidents aligned with public telemetry and scientific data showing consistent spoofing vector patterns that resolved eastward, often pointing toward Simferopol in Russian-occupied Crimea.

In May 2025, Romania’s Chief of Defense publicly confirmed that GNSS spoofing and jamming “occur weekly” along the country’s coast, describing the interference as part of a broader “hybrid warfare” strategy that often coincides with naval movements and drone activity.

Maritime impact and persistent risk (April – May 2025)

By spring 2025, spoofed GNSS signals over the Black Sea had reached near-daily frequency, with merchant vessels east of Constanța and south of Snake Island among the most consistently affected. Civilian AIS systems displayed erratic positioning – ships appearing inland, spinning in circles, or drifting far off established maritime routes.

These spoofing patterns echoed those seen in Russia’s “Baltic Bermuda Triangle”, and were captured in MarineTraffic screenshots throughout the region.

While some signal distortion may appear random, analysts believe much of the interference is intentional, designed to obscure military activity or mask strategic movements. The consequences extend well beyond navigational confusion: ships risk regulatory violations, insurance disputes, and collision hazards, particularly in congested maritime corridors near the Danube Delta and Romanian offshore platforms.

Notably, this maritime interference often coincides with Russian electronic warfare activity in Crimea, reinforcing the pattern of GNSS denial as a tactical smokescreen for broader hybrid operations.

Yet while public reports and operational data confirm the scale and risk of interference, most civilian platforms lack the resolution or visibility to trace signal origin or detect manipulation in real time. This is where Spire’s satellite-based RF monitoring system adds critical value – not only validating interference, but mapping its scope, directionality, and operational impact from orbit.

Spire Satellite Validation

What Spire saw

The following satellite-confirmed incidents showcase how GNSS spoofing activity escalated inland and along the Romanian coast through fall 2024 and into spring 2025. These Spire Aviation snapshots provide concrete telemetry evidence supporting the open-source observations outlined in earlier reporting.

Persistent spoofing over Buzău, Romania (October 2024)

Throughout  October 2024, Spire Aviation’s satellite-based  constellation detected a cluster of GNSS spoofing anomalies over central-eastern Romania, specifically along the flight corridor of the August 2024 high-altitude balloon mission launched by InSpace Engineering.

In three adjacent hexes spanning east-west from Buzău to Ploiești, GNSS integrity metrics showed severe signal degradation that is consistent with spoofing:

• nacp_q05 = 0 in all three zones: this indicates that the lowest 5th percentile of ADS-B messages received in each region reported a NACp value of 0, meaning at least 5% of messages showed complete GNSS position degradation. In practice, this likely reflects GNSS loss affecting multiple aircraft, not just isolated messages.
• nic_q10 = 7 or 8 in all three zones: this means that 90% of ADS-B messages reported a NIC value of 7 or higher, indicating high signal integrity. This pattern of strong signal confidence despite degraded or incorrect positioning is a classic signature of GNSS spoofing, where the spoofed signal appears reliable to receivers but delivers false location data.

One hex captured data from up to 399 aircraft, reinforcing that this was not an isolated anomaly, but a persistent regional interference event.

While the spoofing signal itself likely originated from a local or regional source, the false positions resolved eastward near Simferopol, in Russian-occupied Crimea – mirroring the directional spoofing vector recorded by InSpace. During descent, the balloon’s receiver abruptly snapped to a spoofed position near Ayvazovskogo Airport in Crimea, despite remaining physically over Romanian airspace.

Together, this spatial correlation and spoofed positional alignment confirm that the August spoofing incident was not a one-off anomaly. Instead, it was part of a broader, ongoing GNSS interference pattern affecting NATO airspace through fall 2024.

 

 

High-confidence spoofing over Danube Delta, Romania (August 2024 – April 2025)

Satellite validation from Spire Aviation confirms a persistent GNSS spoofing pattern across southeastern Romania and the Danube Delta region, aligning with pilot-reported anomalies, OPSGROUP alerts, and military assessments from late summer 2024 through spring 2025.

Spire’s satellite-based monitoring system detected recurring spoofing signatures across multiple high-traffic air corridors near Galați, Brăila, and Tulcea – three strategic nodes within Romanian FIR airspace and near NATO’s eastern flank.

Spoofing events confirmed by Spire telemetry

On October 8, 2024, a spoofing incident was recorded over the Tulcea–Babadag region. Spire Aviation telemetry showed that at least 10% of aircraft in this airspace had no valid positional accuracy (nacp_q10 = 0 and nacp_q05 = 0), while simultaneously reporting moderate signal integrity (nic_q10 = 6, nic_q05 = 6). This combination is a textbook spoofing signature: aircraft systems continue to trust the GNSS signal because its integrity rating remains acceptable, but the positional data being delivered is either missing or false.

The result is a navigation environment where aircraft unknowingly operate with degraded spatial awareness—one of the core risks of GNSS spoofing.

Eleven days later, on October 19, a second spoofing event was detected in the exact same hex. In this instance, 5% of aircraft again experienced total position failure (nacp_q05 = 0), while most reported high positional confidence (nacp_q10 = 8) and consistent signal integrity (nic_q10 = 6).

The persistence of this pattern within the same airspace indicates a sustained interference campaign rather than an isolated anomaly. It also reinforces concerns about the repeatability and reliability of GNSS signals in this corridor during periods of heightened regional tension.

By October 26, spoofing indicators appeared in an adjacent hex to the northeast, directly over the Galați–Reni corridor, near the Romanian–Ukrainian border. GNSS metrics again showed position failure in at least 5% of aircraft (nacp_q05 = 0) with strong positional confidence (nacp_q10 = 8) and stable signal integrity (nic_q10 = 6).

With 17 aircraft contributing to the dataset, the data confirms that spoofing was active even with moderate air traffic volume. The shift eastward also suggests possible expansion of spoofing coverage or repositioning of the signal origin – both of which hold implications for cross-border risk.

Together, these incidents reveal a high-confidence spoofing pattern targeting Romanian airspace in fall 2024. The consistency of the metrics, recurrence across time, and movement across neighboring hexes paint a clear picture of deliberate GNSS interference along NATO’s eastern edge.

These signals not only disrupt air navigation, but they also create dangerous operational blind spots in one of Europe’s most sensitive geopolitical regions.

Spoofing expansion along Bulgaria’s Black Sea coast (May 2025)

In late May 2025, Spire Aviation’s satellite-based  monitoring system confirmed ongoing spoofing activity in NATO airspace along the Bulgarian coast, including two key events in the weeks leading up to the now-public characterization of the region as a “Black Sea Bermuda Triangle.”

In both cases, the spoofing signatures followed the same pattern:

• nacp_q05 = 0: At least 5% of received ADS-B messages reported no positional accuracy, likely indicating GNSS spoofing affecting multiple aircraft, though the exact number may vary.
• nacp_q10 = 8 and nic_q10 = 7: Majority of aircraft reported excellent GNSS signal quality
• nic_q05 = 4 (May 24) and 1 (May 31): A small percentage showed degraded signal integrity
• Large sample sizes: 441 and 385 aircraft, respectively

This is a textbook spoofing profile, with pilots and onboard systems reporting a high level of confidence in a GNSS signal that is delivering false or absent location data. The illusion of signal health masks the reality of manipulated positioning, creating serious risk in congested air and sea corridors.

 

Just four days after these satellite-confirmed events, civilian monitoring platforms and ship operators publicly described the Black Sea as exhibiting “Baltic Bermuda Triangle” behavior, where commercial vessels were seen spinning in circles, drifting inland, or teleporting across maritime zones on platforms like MarineTraffic. While initially anecdotal, this Spire Aviation telemetry provides hard evidence that GNSS spoofing was active, frequent, and escalating along Bulgaria’s coast during the final weeks of May 2025.

Together with high-altitude spoofing confirmed by InSpace Engineering, pilot reports submitted to OPSGROUP, and official Romanian defense statements, this coastal spoofing campaign illustrates a multi-domain interference strategy – degrading GNSS integrity across the maritime, aviation, and scientific sectors in one of Europe’s most strategically sensitive theaters.

The impact of Spire Aviation’s satellite data

While traditional public platforms like gpsjam.org offer broad visuals of interference zones, they rarely provide directionality, signal behavior, or attribution confidence. Spire’s LEO-based constellation fills that gap by capturing real-time GNSS telemetry from aircraft, including signal quality, positioning confidence, and interference signatures at scale.

This isn’t just validation. It’s insight.

In the Black Sea region, Spire Aviation’s data didn’t just show where spoofing occurred – it revealed how signals were behaving, how frequently spoofing reoccurred, and how GNSS confidence remained deceptively high even in corrupted zones. That level of resolution allows civil and defense operators to assess operational risk, not just anomaly presence.

Interference pattern and attribution

Spoofing incidents detected by Spire Aviation in fall 2024 and spring 2025 consistently showed directional resolution eastward toward Russian-occupied Crimea. High-altitude spoofing recorded by scientific teams matched flight-based telemetry captured by Spire, with false GNSS positions often snapping toward Simferopol or the vicinity of Ayvazovskogo Airport.

This directional spoofing, coupled with the persistent presence of mobile and sea-based EW systems observed by open-source analysts, suggests a strategic campaign emanating from Crimea and its surrounding waters. Rather than isolated bursts, the interference reflects a layered GNSS denial strategy designed to obscure military movement, mask drone activity, and challenge NATO situational awareness across air and sea domains.

Operational impact

The risks in this story go well beyond “GPS glitching.” GNSS spoofing in the Black Sea region affects:

• Civil aviation: False positions, navigation dropouts, and corridor drift
• Maritime commerce: Regulatory violations, collision hazards, and AIS spoofing
• Scientific missions: Data loss, corrupted baselines, and safety threats
• NATO readiness: Degraded ISR and unreliable GNSS across eastern flank FIRs

In contested or congested airspace, false confidence in location is more dangerous than signal loss. When aircraft or vessels believe they are in the right place, but are not, the result is blind operation under false assumptions.

Spire Aviation’s telemetry-based detection system helps uncover that illusion, alerting operators to invisible threats that traditional RF monitoring can’t capture in time.

Get in touch to explore Spire’s GNSS‑interference data feed or request a demo:

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Continue reading our GNSS interference report series

01: GNSS interference report: Russia – Part 1 of 4: Kaliningrad & the Baltic Sea
02: GNSS interference report: Russia – Part 2 of 4: Crimea and the Black Sea Region
03: GNSS interference report: Russia – Part 3 of 4: Moscow and major urban zones
04: GNSS interference report: Russia – Part 4 of 4: Black Sea & Romanian airspace (current)

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Moscow and major urban zones

While much of Russia’s GNSS electronic warfare (EW) activity remains concentrated near the frontlines and contested regions, a growing share of interference is now appearing in major urban centers, with Moscow at the core.

Amid heightened fears of Ukrainian long-range drone attacks, Russia has increasingly deployed mobile and fixed GNSS jamming systems throughout its capital. These deployments often coincide with national holidays, security alerts, and known periods of UAV incursions, effectively converting the capital into a contested airspace with intermittent GNSS denial.

Summary

• Location: Moscow & surrounding airspace
• Activity: GNSS jamming, cellular interference, and urban-scale electronic warfare deployments
• Date highlight: May 2025 – widespread deployment of jamming equipment in central Moscow due to heightened drone threats
• Impact zones: Central Moscow, airports (Vnukovo, Sheremetyevo), adjacent restricted airspace, urban zones around the country

Real-world incident

In the weeks leading up to Russia’s Victory Day celebrations on May 9th, 2025, a clear pattern of GNSS interference emerged over Moscow and its surrounding airspace. Driven by rising fears (and reported incidents) of Ukrainian UAV strikes targeting symbolic and military assets in the capital, Russian forces initiated a wave of urban-scale electronic warfare deployments that temporarily disrupted civilian navigation and air traffic.

Phase 1: escalating drone threats (April 25 – May 7, 2025)

Open-source reports from AeroTime and Insider Paper confirmed a wave of long-range Ukrainian drone attacks targeting Moscow and surrounding regions in the weeks leading up to Victory Day on May 9th – one of Russia’s most important secular holidays.

Key drone strikes on May 7th included the Shaykovka Air Base in Kaluga and the Kubinka Air Base near Moscow. The pro-Russian Telegram channel Fighterbomber acknowledged the symbolic intent of the Kubinka strike, suggesting it aimed to disrupt the aerial segment of the parade.

Flight operations were suspended at Vnukovo, Domodedovo, and Zhukovsky airports, with over 100 cancellations, 140 delays, and widespread diversions to St. Petersburg’s Pulkovo Airport. Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed 524 drones were intercepted nationwide on May 7th and 8th, marking the largest single UAV barrage since the start of the war.

Telemetry data from GPSjam.org showed stable, and sometimes growing, GNSS interference in and around Moscow between April 30th and May 6th, aligning with escalating drone alerts and airspace closures.

Phase 2: peak interference during victory day (May 7–9, 2025)

As the Victory Day parade approached, an event attended by foreign leaders and featuring coordinated military flyovers, authorities seemingly escalated GNSS interference efforts across Moscow and throughout the region. High-powered jammers were reportedly deployed near the Kremlin, key government ministries, and all three major airports near Moscow.

These measures coincided with full-scale emergency airspace restrictions under Russia’s Kovyor plan, which halts all civilian flights when unidentified aerial objects are detected. The result was a sweeping impact on commercial aviation and urban mobility.

According to Insider Paper and AeroTime, more than 60,000 passengers were affected by grounded or delayed flights in and around Moscow during this period. Airports saw dozens of cancellations and hours-long shutdowns as air defense units responded to continued drone threats.

Telemetry data from GPSjam.org, from May 7–9, shows an increase in ADS-B flight disruptions, forming overlapping jamming zones throughout Moscow airspace. The intensity of the interference aligned with major parade events, especially during high-traffic periods, suggesting the use of short-duration, high-power jamming pulses intended to secure the airspace without extended shutdowns of critical systems.

These concentrated jamming windows also overlapped with commercial aviation corridors, raising risks for aircraft operating on legacy GNSS-reliant systems and requiring rerouting, visual flight rule fallback procedures, or reliance on backup inertial navigation systems.

Phase 3: post-celebration residual jamming (May 10–20, 2025)

In the days following Victory Day, GNSS interference in Moscow persisted but appeared to become less severe, and at times, it was localized around federal buildings, government zones, the MKAD (Moscow Ring Road), and other urban areas around the country.

These reactivations suggest the deployment of semi-permanent or mobile jamming platforms, such as truck-mounted EW systems or containerized field units. Rather than a continuous blanket of interference, the post-event pattern indicates a responsive jamming posture – activated during perceived threats, intelligence alerts, or shifts in aerial surveillance patterns.

The continued disruption also mirrors broader Russian electronic warfare doctrine, which increasingly treats major urban centers as defensible electronic zones during high-alert periods.

Spire satellite validation

What Spire saw

In the lead-up to Russia’s Victory Day celebrations on May 9th, 2025, Spire Aviation’s satellite-based GNSS monitoring revealed a three-phase pattern of electronic warfare over Moscow: a sustained baseline of GNSS interference, a sharp tactical escalation surrounding Victory Day, and a prolonged period of residual jamming in the days that followed.

Unlike static jamming events seen elsewhere, Moscow’s interference profile during this time was dynamic and coordinated, likely shaped by political optics, military activity, and growing threats from Ukrainian drone incursions. By analyzing percentile-based signal degradation (NACp_q05) alongside changes in aircraft behavior, Spire Aviation was able to isolate when and where interference evolved from persistent background noise into a targeted operational tool.

Phase 1: escalating drone threats (April 25 – May 7, 2025)

From April 30th through May 6th, Spire Aviation detected continuous GNSS signal degradation across central and western Moscow, including the Kubinka corridor, where Ukrainian drones struck military airbases. Each day, more than 2,500 unique hexes exhibited degraded positioning or signal integrity (nacp_q05 = 0), with over 1 million GNSS telemetry data points observed operating within these affected zones over the course of the week.

Phase 2: peak interference during victory day celebrations (May 7–9, 2025)

In the days surrounding Russia’s Victory Day celebrations, Spire Aviation’s GNSS monitoring detected not only sustained interference but a stark concentration of signal degradation affecting a high volume of aircraft over a narrow urban footprint.

To isolate the core disruption zone, we filtered GNSS degradation (NACp_q05 = 0) by aircraft count within each hex. As the threshold of impacted aircraft increased – from 20 to 40, 60, and finally 100 – the geographic distribution of degraded zones collapsed inward, revealing a probable epicenter of jamming.

This concentric collapse points to a centralized, high-power jamming source operating in or near Zelenograd, northwest of central Moscow, during the peak interference window.

 

 

 

This behavioral signal, when paired with the drop in GNSS telemetry volume during May 5–7, suggests not only widespread jamming but deliberate signal saturation over critical airspace. The tactical precision of this escalation, centered around Moscow’s most symbolic holiday, aligns with prior state responses to perceived threats from UAVs and validates the strategic nature of GNSS disruption as a tool of information warfare.

While the Victory Day parade itself took place in Red Square, the historic center of Moscow, Spire Aviation’s data shows that the highest GNSS disruption was concentrated further northwest, near Zelenograd. This geographic offset suggests a layered defense strategy: rather than broadcasting jamming directly over the Kremlin, Russian forces likely positioned high-power emitters along probable UAV routes. The spatial collapse of interference zones toward this location reinforces the use of GNSS disruption as a perimeter-based countermeasure to shield critical infrastructure from aerial threats.

Phase 3: post-celebration residual jamming (May 10–20, 2025)

While Moscow remained the focal point of Victory Day interference, Spire’s satellite data from April 30th to May 20th reveals that GNSS jamming did not subside; it dispersed and persisted. In particular, urban areas across central and eastern Russia exhibited elevated GNSS degradation after the Victory Day celebration, with more than 40 aircraft per hex impacted by total loss of positional accuracy (NACp_q05 = 0).

The images below show the contrast in interference between the week leading up to Victory Day and the week after.

 

The contrast between these two periods shows that GNSS interference did not subside after the May 9th holiday – it persisted, with sustained jamming activity observed across multiple urban centers well beyond Moscow.

This continuity becomes more telling when viewed alongside recent UAV strike data. Several of the cities that experienced continued or elevated interference between May 10th and 20th had also been targeted by drone attacks earlier in the year, suggesting that GNSS interference is being used as an ongoing countermeasure in regions deemed vulnerable to aerial threats.

Kazan (January 2025)

Between May 9th and May 20th, Spire satellite telemetry shows persistent GNSS jamming in Kazan’s urban airspace, with over 40 aircraft per reporting hex losing positional accuracy (NACp_q05 = 0). While it’s not confirmed with total certainty, this localized interference is observed months after a drone strike on a key facility located in Kazan.

On January 20, 2025, kamikaze drones targeted the Kazan Aviation Plant, a facility central to the production and modernization of Russia’s Tu-160 and Tu-22M3 strategic bombers. The strike occurred around 5 a.m., reportedly causing an explosion and fire on the factory airfield. Although local officials claimed all drones were intercepted and no infrastructure was damaged, open-source imagery analysis indicated that fuel tanks near the KAPO-Composite hangar were hit. This hangar specializes in the manufacture of composite components for long-range bombers and civilian aircraft under the Tupolev design bureau.

The strike’s location, deep within Russian territory, underscores the evolving reach of Ukrainian UAV operations. Its target selection suggests a deliberate attempt to disrupt high-value military-industrial capacity. The presence of renewed GNSS jamming in Kazan’s airspace months after the incident points to a lingering defensive response. It reflects a broader trend in which electronic warfare assets are being repositioned in direct response to UAV threats, reinforcing the idea that GNSS denial is no longer confined to ceremonial events or border regions but a persistent urban countermeasure in strategically sensitive zones.

Ufa (March 2025)

Between May 9th and May 20th, Spire Aviation data shows consistent GNSS interference over Ufa, with multiple urban hexes reporting complete positional loss (NACp_q05 = 0). This jamming activity follows a drone strike on one of Russia’s most strategically significant oil refineries.

In the early hours of March 4, 2025, local emergency services in Ufa reported a fire at the Ufa oil refinery, one of the largest in Russia, with an annual capacity of around 20 million tons. While Russia’s Ministry of Emergency Situations acknowledged the fire, it did not specify a cause. No casualties were reported, and the blaze was reportedly extinguished after seven hours.

However, Ukrainian official Andriy Kovalenko publicly described the incident as a UAV strike, stating that the facility plays a critical role in fueling Russia’s military – producing aviation fuel, diesel for armored vehicles, and essential lubricants for both ground and air operations.

Russia’s Defense Ministry did not acknowledge any aerial activity over Ufa, but it did report intercepting seven Ukrainian drones elsewhere that same night. The lack of attribution, combined with open-source claims of a strategic hit, points to growing uncertainty (and concern) over Ukraine’s ability to strike deep into Russian territory.

Spire’s interference data suggests a localized, post-strike electronic warfare response, consistent with a broader trend of GNSS denial emerging in cities linked to military infrastructure or prior UAV incidents. In Ufa’s case, the timing and concentration of jamming reinforce the view that Russia is maintaining an elevated defensive posture in zones it now considers vulnerable.

Samara (March 2025)

Spire Aviation’s satellite data shows elevated GNSS interference in Samara’s airspace from May 9th to May 20th, with hexes indicating total positional loss (NACp_q05 = 0) and more than 40 aircraft impacted in some zones. This activity followed a reported drone strike in March on the Novokuibyshevsk oil refinery, one of the region’s largest industrial facilities and a known supplier of military-grade fuel.

On March 10, 2025, Ukrainian drones reportedly struck the refinery, which has a capacity of up to 8.8 million metric tons annually and is operated by Rosneft, Russia’s state-owned oil giant. While the Samara governor downplayed the incident, claiming no damage or fire occurred, Russia’s Emergency Situations Ministry contradicted this with video evidence showing firefighters battling flames inside a warehouse. Ukrainian officials, including spokespeople from the National Security and Defense Council, confirmed that the refinery was the intended target and emphasized its strategic role in fueling Russia’s military operations.

The timing and location of the strike underscore Ukraine’s continued effort to disrupt key energy infrastructure linked to the war effort. The recurrence of GNSS interference in Samara’s airspace two months later suggests a sustained defensive posture in response to that vulnerability. As with Kazan and Ufa, the interference aligns with previous UAV activity and reflects Russia’s apparent shift toward localized, threat-responsive jamming around critical infrastructure nodes.

The impact of Spire’s satellite data

Spire Aviation’s LEO-based GNSS monitoring provides not only confirmation of jamming activity across Russia’s urban centers but also granular insight into its operational footprint, timing, and escalation pattern. By using percentile-based signal degradation (NACp_q05) and applying aircraft count filters to identify only statistically significant interference zones, Spire is able to detect, visualize, and timestamp GNSS disruption as it unfolds, all without reliance on government or ground-based sources.

This capability proves especially valuable in contested information environments, where denial, misdirection, or delayed attribution are common. Spire Aviation’s data helps understand when jamming is being deployed reactively, proactively, or symbolically, and helps to isolate potential emitters based on geographic collapse patterns, interference density, and correlation with high-value targets or strategic infrastructure.

Interference pattern and attribution

The pattern emerging from spring 2025 suggests a clear evolution in Russian electronic warfare doctrine. GNSS jamming, once primarily deployed along frontlines or during ceremonial state events, is now appearing in major urban centers in direct response to UAV threats. In Moscow, this manifests as preemptive signal denial around holidays like Victory Day. In Kazan, Ufa, and Samara, jamming reappears weeks or months after confirmed or suspected drone strikes, implying a defensive repositioning of mobile EW assets.

In several cases, Spire Aviation’s data shows interference originating not at the strike site itself, but at likely UAV approach corridors, hinting at perimeter-based jamming strategies intended to confuse or block drone navigation systems before they reach high-value targets.

Attribution of interference events to specific platforms remains complex. However, the concentric collapse of aircraft-affected hexes seen near Zelenograd and the post-strike reactivation patterns observed in multiple cities strongly suggest the use of mobile, possibly truck-mounted or containerized EW systems with tactical jamming range, rather than broad, indiscriminate denial fields.

Operational impact

The effects of GNSS interference across Moscow and other urban zones in spring 2025 were both civilian and strategic. For commercial aviation, the disruptions were immediate and visible. Aircraft operating within the affected airspace experienced degraded positioning, in some cases requiring rerouting or reverting to fallback navigation procedures such as visual flight rules or inertial systems. During the Victory Day period alone, more than 60,000 passengers were impacted by flight cancellations, delays, and diversions, including partial shutdowns at Moscow’s Vnukovo and Domodedovo airports.

At the strategic level, GNSS jamming appears to serve a dual function: both as a deterrent against UAV incursions and as a masking tool for Russian military activity. By denying signal access across critical airspace, Russian forces can inhibit drone navigation while simultaneously concealing the movement or deployment of sensitive defense systems.

Get in touch to explore Spire’s GNSS‑interference data feed or request a demo:

Crimea and the Black Sea Region

Russia’s use of electronic warfare (EW) around Crimea and the Black Sea region has shifted from isolated jamming events to a dynamic, mobile strategy that is actively shaping battlefield conditions in southern Ukraine.

Once an epicenter of Russia’s GNSS interference operations, Crimea remains heavily fortified. However, key systems, such as Pole-21 satellite jammers, are being strategically redeployed to more contested areas when necessary, particularly along the Kherson–Mykolaiv corridor. This shift represents a tactical evolution: GNSS jamming is no longer a static form of disruption for Russia, but a responsive tool used to adapt to drone-driven threats and front-line pressure.

Interference in this region not only confuses ISR drones and aircraft positioning, but it has now become a direct factor shaping military decisions, operational tempo, and tactical planning on both sides of the conflict.

The key takeaway? EW in the Black Sea is no longer fixed. It’s mobile, adaptive, and synced to the rhythms of modern, drone-intensive warfare.

Summary

• Location: Crimea and Kherson Oblast, Ukraine
• Activity: Strategic relocation of Russian air defense and GPS jamming systems, including Pole-21
• Date highlight: March-April 2025 – Electronic Warfare (EW) systems moved from Crimea to Kherson; targeted destruction of Russian jammers on April 14.
• Impact zones: Southern Ukraine frontlines, Black Sea coastal regions, and surrounding airspace

Real-world incident: Frontline jamming & tactical response

In late March 2025, resistance sources affiliated with the ATESH movement reported that Russia was moving Pole-21 GPS jamming systems out of southern/central Crimea and redeploying them to Kherson Oblast. The reports were interpreted as an effort to reinforce EW coverage near the increasingly active frontlines around Oleshky and the Dnipro River delta, where Ukrainian drone strikes and precision targeting are intensifying.

The Pole-21 system is designed to jam GNSS signals and communications links, particularly those used by UAVs and guided munitions. Open-source GPS interference maps from gpsjam.org showed a corresponding shift in GNSS disruptions during this time, with signal degradation appearing in areas matching reports of newly-placed Russian air defense systems near the border.

Then, on April 15, Ukraine reportedly responded with a drone strike that destroyed a Borisoglebsk-2 jamming complex near Kamianske in the Kherson region. According to a video released by Ukraine’s Operational Command South, the strike used two UAVs – one to disable the system and the second to destroy it entirely. The Borisoglebsk-2 is one of Russia’s most advanced EW platforms, capable of conducting up to 30 simultaneous jamming tasks, and has an estimated value of $200 million.

This event marked a rare publicly visible instance of Ukrainian forces successfully targeting a high-value EW system deep behind the lines. While the exact timing of the strike remains unconfirmed, its release signaled Ukraine’s growing emphasis on degrading Russian jamming capabilities to regain tactical airspace advantage.

Although the operational impact of the strike is difficult to confirm through open-source maps alone, the event adds an important dimension to the evolving EW landscape in southern Ukraine, highlighting both the vulnerability of mobile Russian jamming platforms and the increasing precision of Ukrainian UAV strikes.

Spire satellite validation

What Spire saw

This section draws on data from Spire Aviation’s GNSS interference monitoring constellation, specifically filtered to highlight confirmed, high-confidence jamming activity over southern Ukraine and Crimea.

We limited the analysis to:

• Records where NACp_q05 = 0, indicating a complete loss of horizontal position accuracy at the 5th percentile – a strong signal of GNSS degradation
• Hexes with ≥5 aircraft reporting, to eliminate statistical noise or single-point anomalies

This filtering ensured we captured only repeatable, aircraft-validated interference events, providing a more conservative and operationally meaningful dataset.

March 12-28, 2025

During this window, GNSS interference was heavily concentrated over western Crimea, including Sevastopol, Yevpatoriya, and Saky. These locations are consistent with known Russian EW deployments and match historic interference patterns visible in public datasets.

Figure 1 shows this pattern clearly: jamming is restricted to the Crimean peninsula, with no detectable interference north of the border in Kherson Oblast or along the Dnipro Delta front.

March 28-April 28, 2025

A sharp geographic shift occurs toward the end of March. Interference expands north and west of Crimea, appearing for the first time in Spire Aviation’s dataset near southern Kherson Oblast, including airspace over Armyansk and the Black Sea coastline.

This timing aligns with open-source reporting of Russian EW asset redeployments from Crimea to the southern front. Specifically, partisan networks and military analysts reported that Pole-21 systems were being repositioned to defend against increasing Ukrainian drone and strike activity near the Kherson-Mykolaiv axis.

Figure 2 shows interference activity now spanning both Crimea and southern Ukraine, suggesting that mobile jamming systems were either relocated or temporarily co-deployed near the border.

Still, one key anomaly stands out. Between April 14 and April 16, jamming activity over Kherson Oblast disappears entirely – a brief blackout during an otherwise continuous interference period. This 48-hour blackout directly precedes the April 15 release of video footage showing a Ukrainian drone strike on a Borisoglebsk-2 jamming system near Kamianske.

While Spire Aviation’s dataset cannot confirm the exact cause of the lapse, and the drone impact site lies inside inactive Ukrainian airspace, the timing is consistent with either a system loss or a tactical shutdown of local EW operations in response to the intrusion. The interruption highlights how even within sustained jamming periods, interference can pause, reposition, or retreat based on evolving threat conditions.

April 28-May 12, 2025

A sudden drop in interference is observed again starting late April. Hexes across southern Kherson Oblast and the adjacent coastal region go dark with no qualifying GNSS degradation detected, despite ongoing aircraft traffic present.

Figure 3 highlights this change. Jamming remains visible in Crimea but disappears entirely north of the peninsula, suggesting either a temporary EW stand-down, a redeployment of mobile assets, or a lull in active jamming missions.

The gaps observed, which were both brief and sustained, showcase the value of high-resolution satellite data in capturing not only GNSS interference, but its timing, volatility, and operational behavior.

The impact of Spire’s satellite data

Spire Aviation’s data provides critical insight into the operational rhythm of electronic warfare, not just its presence. While public sources can show that jamming occurred, they cannot reliably pinpoint:

• When interference intensifies
• Where jamming systems relocate
• When and where interference ceases

In this case, Spire Aviation’s data reveals a three-phase evolution of GNSS jamming across the southern front:

• Pre-relocation: Static interference confined to Crimea
• Frontline expansion: Interference spreads across Kherson Oblast airspace
• Operational pause: Jamming vanishes abruptly from high-priority airspace

This progression offers a strategic lens into real-world EW behavior, illustrating how interference not only expands and persists, but also retreats, pauses, and adapts in response to battlefield conditions.

Interference pattern and attribution

Spire Aviaton’s GNSS telemetry reveals a clear three-phase evolution of interference in southern Ukraine between March and May 2025:

1. Localized disruption over Crimea (March 12–28), consistent with static EW installations
2. Expansion into Kherson Oblast (March 28–April 28), suggesting mobile deployment of Pole-21 systems
3. Abrupt interference pauses, including a brief 48-hour blackout (April 14–16) and a sustained outage (April 28–May 12), showing either tactical repositioning, system loss, or command-level deactivation

These patterns align with both open-source reporting of EW system movement and Ukraine’s tactical countermeasures, but only Spire Aviation’s data captures their timing, location, and duration with aircraft-based precision.

Operational impact

GNSS jamming across southern Ukraine directly affects:

• ISR and UAV operations, by degrading satellite-based navigation and targeting
• Civilian air traffic, especially at low altitudes along contested corridors
• Battlefield coordination, where digital targeting and movement depend on reliable GNSS data

The presence, and sudden absence, of interference in key zones reflects both Russia’s evolving EW strategy, as well as moments of vulnerability. Spire’s high-resolution monitoring enables early detection of these changes, improving situational awareness for aviation, defense, and civil resilience stakeholders.

What’s next

Part 2 investigated Crimea and the Black Sea, where Ukrainian drone strikes are thought to have disrupted and reshaped Russian jamming operations. In Part 3, we’ll shift focus to Moscow and major urban zones, where short-duration, high-intensity jamming is increasingly used to defend high-value infrastructure from long-range UAV threats.

Using Spire Aviation’s GNSS interference data, we’ll analyze how mobile jamming assets are deployed during high-alert periods, including Victory Day, and how these urban interference patterns impact both military operations and civilian aviation.

Get in touch to explore Spire’s GNSS‑interference data feed or request a demo:

The changing geography of air cargo

For years, global air cargo routes followed predictable patterns, dominated by a few core regions and trade flows. But over the last two the rise of e-commerce, which requires new last-mile and regional logistics, decentralized manufacturing, as companies diversify beyond China and strategic airline investments in underserved markets. The researchers looked into how the traditional trade zones and routes interact across the globe.

What the research did:

1. Built a comprehensive operational dataset – 4 million dedicated-freighter flights observed in 2022(ADS-B, Spire Aviation) spanning 1660 airports and 251 airlines were cleaned, fuel-stop-corrected and merged with macro-economic and infrastructure indicators for 111 countries—covering 92 % of global GDP.
2. Found the drivers of flight intensity with ordinary least squares – Three OLS models (all flights, express, general cargo) revealed that international-flight shareand first-degree connectivity are the strongest positive predictors, while large land area depresses freighter frequency; flown-freight tonnes matter only in general-cargo markets.
3. Bench-tested seven clustering algorithms and chose the best – K-means, spectral, agglomerative, DBSCAN, HDBSCAN, mean-shift and affinity-propagation were scored with Silhouette and Calinski–Harabasz indices; K-means (6 clusters) won for express traffic, spectral clustering (4 clusters) for general cargo, balancing statistical strength with interpretability.
4. Expanded the clusters into ten “Air-Cargo Logistics Archetypes” – Each archetype blends country context, centroid weights and mapped origin-destination lanes to tell a coherent logistics story.

Archetypes at a glance

• Integrator Super-Hubs – high-income, high-capacity, dominated by express parcels (e.g., US, Germany).
• Manufacturing Platforms – strong export orientation, balanced integrator/general traffic (e.g., Canada, Mexico).
• Gateway Transhipment Nodes – infrastructure-rich states leveraging geography more than domestic demand (e.g., Qatar, UAE).
• Resource-Driven Cargo Origins – bulk perishables or extractives, limited inbound volumes (e.g., Chile, Kenya).
• Emergent Regional Feeders – growing middle class, upgrading airports, still below global density average (e.g., Latin America, Africa).

Why it matters?

• Strategy: Airlines can tailor fleet and product (express, perishables, e-commerce) to an archetype’s signature demand profile.
• Policy & infrastructure – Policymakers can use the proposed archetypes to prioritize investments and policy interventions that align with different markets’ specific needs and characteristics.
• Sustainability – Right-sizing capacity to archetype-specific flow density can potentially cut CO₂ per tonne-km due to a more efficient routing.
• Resilience – Diversifying routings across contrasting archetypes buffers shocks such as pandemic-era capacity crunches and geopolitical reroutes.

Rethinking connections: New routes and alliances

Air cargo connectivity is no longer just about long-haul flights between major cities. The industry is evolving to reflect new priorities and pressures.

Key trends:

• Shorter, faster routes for regional fulfillment (e.g., Southeast Asia to India or Africa to Europe)
• Multi-stop freighter networks, connecting multiple second-tier cities in a single loop
• Cargo-only airlines and alliances expanding into logistic corridors, especially in Africa and Latin America

Technology also plays a role. Airlines now use data-driven planning to optimize cargo loads and minimize empty space, allowing for more flexible, responsive route planning.

Implications for the future of air cargo

These shifts point to a broader transformation in how goods move around the world:

• Air cargo is becoming less centralized. Instead of a few dominant airports, a wider web of regional hubs is emerging.
• Flexibility and speed are now more important than volume alone, especially in the age of on-demand delivery.
• Emerging markets are not just cargo origins; they’re becoming major transit and destination points in their own right.

Conclusion: A more complex, connected air cargo network

Air cargo today is no longer just about connecting New York, London, and Tokyo. It’s about linking Hanoi to Nairobi, São Paulo to Johannesburg, and Shanghai to Doha. The rise of new hubs, the redistribution of trade flows, and the integration of technology are shaping an air freight system that is faster, more resilient, and more globally inclusive.

Whether you’re tracking a package or studying the structure of global trade, understanding the changing nature of air cargo gives a clearer view of how the world is moving. Analysing air cargo flight traffic to understand cargo routes, aircraft type, capacity, frequency and freighter airline operations have become fast and easier than ever thanks to global flight data powered by multi-source ground and space-based ADS-B.

Explore our air cargo insights

Kaliningrad & the Baltic Region

Kaliningrad Oblast, wedged between NATO members Poland and Lithuania, has emerged as the Baltic’s most persistent GNSS interference zone. The region hosts both known electronic warfare installations and suspected mobile jammers, both on land and at sea.

In October 2024, maritime jamming strong enough to affect flight navigation was confirmed, with high-confidence attribution to vessels operating offshore. These mobile sources regularly affect aircraft and shipping in the EEZs of Poland, Lithuania, and Sweden, raising operational risks across the region.

Summary

Real-world incident

Over a 6-month period in 2024, researchers at Gdynia Maritime University and GPSPATRON in Poland monitored GPS disruptions with on-campus sensors situated just over 70 miles east of Kaliningrad. Over those 6 months, they detected 84 hours of GNSS interference, with 29 hours of that total observed in October alone.

In October, researchers observed up to 7-hour stretches of GNSS disruption affecting all four major satellite constellations (GPS, GLONASS, Galileo, BeiDou). Position errors exceeded 30 meters, enough to compromise safe routing for ships and aircraft. The interference patterns, matched with vessel movement, point to ship-borne jammers operating in international waters.

By correlating the interference patterns with real-time vessel movement, researchers provided strong evidence that the source was mobile jamming devices aboard ships underway. This marked one of the first publicly verified cases of ship-based GNSS jamming in the Baltic Sea, with additional interference events detected across the exclusive economic zones (EEZs) of Poland, Sweden, and Lithuania.

The findings increase the growing concern over mobile maritime interference as a newer, more unpredictable source of GNSS disruptions, which increasingly affect marine and aviation environments.

Spire satellite validation

What Spire saw

Spire Aviation’s satellite-based analysis captured GNSS integrity metrics (NIC) and positional accuracy (NACp) across more than 300 aircraft on 14 October 2024. While most aircraft (q10 cohort) maintained normal performance, the bottom 5% (q05) showed total collapse in both NACp and NIC, as shown in the table below. This collapse was concentrated within a specific hexagon (shown in Figure 1) where a subset of aircraft experienced complete GNSS failure while others nearby remained unaffected.

Metric	10th percentile (q10)	5th percentile (q05)	What it means
NACp	7 (< 75 m accuracy)	0 (no fix)	A minority of aircraft lost all positional accuracy, while others remained unaffected
NIC	5 (moderate integrity)	0 (no integrity)	A small subset of receivers flagged positional data as unusable

Table 1: Performance of aircraft transiting the hexagon shown in Figure 1, where GNSS interference was most severe.

Because q10 values remain relatively healthy while q05 values collapse, the interference is deemed localized and inconsistent across aircraft. This is consistent with directional jamming or a mobile emitter impacting some aircraft more than others, depending on altitude, position, and heading.

This pattern is visible in Figure 1, which shows a central hex identified as one of the strongest and most likely interference zones for the day. In contrast, Figures 2, 3, and 4 show nearby hexes with diminished disruption – fewer affected aircraft, partial metric degradation, and ultimately, a weaker or more distant jamming signal. This progression helps illustrate how GNSS interference intensity decreases with distance from one of the suspected jammer’s core influence areas.

Figure 1. Spire hex‑map, 14 Oct 2024: central red cells show q05 = 0 for NACp & NIC. Adjacent cells retain increasingly normal values, confirming the jammer’s finite footprint.

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Figure 2. Northern hex shows moderate q05 degradation, indicating some aircraft experienced reduced GNSS integrity. However, no full collapse occurred, suggesting this hex sits inside the jammer’s reach but outside its peak cone.

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Figure 3. Southwest hex shows no q05 collapse and minimal aircraft impact, indicating it sits outside the effective jamming cone. The absence of interference closer to land further strengthens the mobile emitter hypothesis.

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Figure 4. Western hex reports normal NIC and NACp values across both q10 and q05 cohorts, supporting the conclusion that the jammer was not land-based, especially not located in Kaliningrad.

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Why does this point to mobile jammers?

Several clues in Spire’s dataset indicate that the interference source on 14 October was likely maritime:

• Geographic isolation: The most affected hexes are in open water. Disruption does not increase as aircraft approach Kaliningrad, weakening the case for a land-based emitter.
• Rapid falloff: As shown in Figures 2 through 4, GNSS degradation weakens quickly across adjacent hexes, consistent with a directional or moving signal origin.
• Selective aircraft impact: q05 values collapsed while q10 values remained stable. This points to localized jamming affecting only those aircraft positioned in a narrow cone of interference.
• High altitude effect: The affected aircraft were flying at altitudes up to 36,000 feet. That profile is consistent with upward radiation from sea-level, not fixed spoofers or urban EW systems.

While open-source platforms often flag only complete blackouts or a range of interference, Spire’s percentile breakdown reveals localized interference in international waters – data that points not to stationary emitters, but likely to mobile assets operating across borders and jurisdictions.

Using passive RF detection from low Earth orbit (LEO), Spire recorded a marked decline in reliable ADS-B signals from multiple aircraft transiting the region surrounding Kaliningrad. The degraded signals were spatially and temporally concentrated in international airspace directly adjacent to the Russian exclave, which is consistent with the signature of onboard GNSS receivers experiencing interference, rather than spoofing or aircraft-based system failure.

Interference pattern and attribution

Over the past few years, the Kaliningrad exclave has become one of Europe’s most active GNSS jamming zones. Situated between NATO members Poland and Lithuania, Kaliningrad is home to several known Russian electronic warfare (EW) units. Reports have also linked ongoing GNSS interference to the Tobol system, a mobile jamming unit that restricts satellite navigation and communications over broad areas.

These reported disruptions are not one-off events. As early as 2024, the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) issued Safety Information Bulletins warning operators of persistent signal degradation in the Baltic region, particularly in airspace proximate to Kaliningrad and the Russian coast.

Academic and Spire data together indicate the October event was a maritime extension of that capability, likely a naval or paramilitary platform demonstrating area‑denial over NATO corridors.

Operational impacts

GNSS jamming near the Baltic Sea has affected civil aviation, NATO surveillance missions, and commercial maritime traffic. Area Navigation (RNAV) Approaches – procedures that allow aircraft to navigate along pre-defined flight paths without support from ground-based navigation systems – have been regularly disrupted, forcing aircraft to revert to long-used and semi-outdated ground-based navigation procedures.

The growing scale and frequency of these events have prompted closer coordination between regional air navigation service providers and calls for rapidly available space-based interference detection solutions that can be deployed today.

Why Spire’s view is critical

In this Baltic Sea case study, the value lies in how Spire’s telemetry reveals critical patterns that conventional heat maps miss. Three reasons:

1. Hidden severity: q05 vs q10 spread
   In the primary interference zone, 3 out of 53 aircraft experienced full GNSS collapse. That may seem minor, but with directional or mobile jammers, this pattern is expected. Only aircraft in the right slice of airspace at the right moment are affected. For operators, even a small cluster of failures becomes a red flag, especially when those failures concentrate along a defined corridor.
2. Mobile attribution: Spatial fingerprint
   On October 14th, the worst-affected hexes appeared offshore, with no signal gradient leading back toward land. That spatial isolation (GNSS denial over open water rather than near fixed EW infrastructure) strongly suggests a mobile emitter, likely operating from a vessel.
3. Cruise phase impact pattern
   Although altitude data wasn’t directly extracted, the affected airspace lies well offshore, in regions typically transited by aircraft at cruising altitudes. The pattern aligns with an emitter at sea level radiating upward, consistent with maritime jamming, not ground-based spoofing or low-elevation urban jammers.

Bottom line for Baltic stakeholders

It is highly probable that a single mobile emitter created navigation blind spots capable of disrupting RNAV procedures and undermining safety. Spire’s percentile telemetry suggests that this event may not be a benign anomaly.

What’s next?

Part 2 investigates Crimea & the Black Sea, where Ukranian drone strikes drastically affected Russian jamming strategies. We’ll apply the same Spire analytics to expose mobile jamming tactics used around Russian assets.

Get in touch to explore Spire’s GNSS‑interference data feed or request a demo:

GNSS interruptions and the threat to aviation

GNSS interruptions are a rapidly growing threat to the aviation industry, and GNSS jamming and spoofing occur all day, every day, all around the world. 

The rising threat of GNSS interference

While the aviation industry is dependent on GNSS systems, those signals are extremely vulnerable to disruption. Those who stand to benefit from this have now ‘weaponized’ GNSS interference, and it’s causing very real problems in the global airspace. 

In fact, the growth statistics from recent years are clear.

• In 2021, just under 11,000 GNSS interference incidents were recorded.
• In 2022, that figure jumped to more than 49,000 incidents.
• Between August of 2023 and March of 2024, around 46,000 interruptions were reported over the Baltic region alone. 
• In 2024, the relatively small country of Finland reported 2800 disruptions in just its airspace.

We are seeing a trend: a rapid increase in the number of GNSS interruptions, and they don’t show any signs of slowing. 

While GNSS jamming and spoofing are increasing globally, occurrences are particularly high in high-traffic zones (HTZs), war zones, and regions with ongoing geopolitical conflicts. This is undoubtedly why we are seeing such a spike in the Baltics, although things are trending upward regardless of the war. 

While most countries have laws and regulations around GPS jammers, the devices are relatively easy to obtain, even where they are not legally purchased. Even military jammers are being found in the hands of civilians, so the laws and regulations are not slowing the impact.
 

Aviation security and passenger risk

Apart from efficiency and typical air transit concerns, GNSS interference puts everyday people at risk. For commercial airlines, a loss of GNSS signal results in the plane vanishing from radar. When GNSS signals go missing, so do the planes – at least digitally. In this case, pilots can be forced to divert routes or enact emergency procedures without the security of GNSS navigation – no location on radar and no data about other aircraft in the shared airspace. 

It’s also challenging for air traffic control (ATC), forcing them to manage things with a high level of uncertainty, often attempting to manage multiple aircraft at once. 

Simply put, situational awareness in the airspace is critical to keeping people safe, traveling on schedule, and assets intact. Even brief GNSS disruptions can create a snowball effect that can affect anything and everything in tandem. 

To fully grasp the risks GNSS interference presents to aviation, it’s essential to understand how a simple signal disruption can quickly escalate into a significant loss of aircraft visibility, which we cover below.

Understanding the GNSS interference journey

When GNSS interruptions happen, the impact on aviation isn’t always immediate. Instead, it tends to unfold through a ‘domino effect,’ so understanding each step of the process can help you see how small events can lead to significant problems.

Step 1: The jamming event

Jamming happens when GNSS signals are jammed via signal jammers. This can, and often is, an intentional effort, but jamming can also be unintentional, as GNSS signals are relatively weak and any stronger RF signal on the same frequency can overpower the original.

While jamming sources are often simply handheld GNSS jamming devices, they may also include jamming from military exercises, electronic warfare, or accidental emissions from non-compliant RF devices.

Regardless of the source, once a rogue signal overtakes the original by overpowering the frequency band, legitimate signals are drowned out and no longer recognized.

Step 2: Signal integrity degrades

When GNSS receivers have trouble understanding the difference between legitimate and illegitimate RF signals, all signal integrity diminishes. When this happens, it often results in things like position drift (aircraft ‘seemingly’ wander from their true location), tracking systems lose their ‘lock’ onto known satellite references, and ADS-B degradation (the geolocation position broadcast from aircraft).

By the final stage, aircraft might still be operating normally and without fail, but the systems (and operators tracking them) will start to encounter anomalies that make airspaces hard to manage.

Step 3: Aircraft positional data fails

If or when jamming lasts for an extended period or intensifies over a short window, the situation can become increasingly dangerous.

Not only can an aircraft disappear entirely from radar, but air traffic control teams can no longer reliably track the flight, resulting in the inability to route other flights that could potentially interfere with those not on radar. Pilots might also need to revert to backup navigation, which can increase their workload, operational complexity, and more. Ultimately, this mix puts people and assets at risk.

While most of these outcomes are manageable in open airspaces, condensed or contested airspace is different. Even minor disruptions can evolve into serious risks, so mitigating things that lead to miscommunication, delayed responses, or midair safety issues should be of top interest.

The escalating threat

The threats stemming from GNSS interference are no longer hypothetical, and they are creating a full restructuring of operations within aviation.

Today’s GNSS jamming hotspots

While GNSS jamming is on the rise across the globe, there are specific regions that are currently seeing massive spikes. These occurrences are causing disruptions, delays, and security concerns that have caused havoc for many. 

Today, the following are considered the world’s GNSS jamming hotspots. 

Eastern Mediterranean

The Eastern Mediterranean is one of today’s jamming hotspots due to the ongoing political tensions in the region, which include tensions in Israel, Egypt, Syria, and Libya. Since GNSS jamming and spoofing have been primary strategies for nations to protect their interests, the region is a ‘high-risk’ zone for jamming and spoofing. 

Eastern Europe

In Eastern Europe, the situation is similar to that of the Mediterranean. The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine is creating a high concentration of electronic warfare, driven by GNSS jamming and spoofing. Nearly every one of Russia’s borders is showing jammed GNSS signals, as seen in the image below. It is important to note that this is likely a mix of civilian and military jamming sources, with the likelihood that the majority are military.

East Asia

In East Asia, the contested South China Sea accounts for most of the jamming, but it also includes the border between North and South Korea, as well as the Yellow Sea. GNSS disruptions in this part of the world have been consistent and continue to disrupt flights and communications in the area. 

Future growth and aviation demand

While it’s obvious that GNSS disruptions are a problem for aviation, that fact is compounded by three clear trends. 

1. Growing Air Traffic: According to forecasts, air traffic is expected to grow to 12 billion passengers, an approximately 33% increase compared to today. By 2042, that number is projected to reach 19.5 billion.
2. Urban Air Mobility (UAM) Expansion: New forms of aircraft and air travel are arriving every day, including drones, autonomous aerial vehicles, and even air taxis.
3. Increased Geopolitical Instability: While geopolitical tensions are always a concern, GNSS jamming and spoofing are now a core strategy within them, so we will continue to see increases in interference globally, even if the number or severity of conflicts remains relatively consistent.

Addressing the pressing challenges involved with today’s aviation landscape is going to take more than typical strategies using ground-based surveillance. At Spire, we are looking multiple steps ahead, creating innovative, space-based technologies to develop solutions now, not later.

How Spire is responding

The present and growing threats of GNSS interference demand more than awareness. They require cutting-edge, innovative technologies and scalable solutions that help provide resilience to the future aviation landscape.

At Spire, we are uniquely positioned to meet the challenge, enabling near real-time interference detection from LEO. Our approach comprises two primary strategies, as outlined below.

1. Spire’s reconnaissance solutions: Interference detection as a data service

Spire operates one of the world’s most advanced space-based RF sensing constellations, actively scanning Earth’s surface for signs of GNSS jamming and spoofing. These spaceborne sensors capture RF anomalies in near real-time, and include things like signal loss, multipath distortion, and power-level inconsistencies that flag spoofing or jamming attempts.

Using proprietary detection algorithms, Spire is able to geolocate and timestamp interference events, track jamming patterns over time, and identify GNSS spoofing based on signal structure and behavioral anomalies.

Organizations are able to tap into specialized datasets that give direct measurements of interference events, can assess the health and quality of satellite signals in specific regions, and alert users of deviations based on GNSS performance patterns.

All interference datasets are available in standard aviation and geospatial formats (GeoJSON, CSV, KML, etc.) and can integrate with existing surveillance systems, decision dashboards, or early-warning tools via API or flat-file delivery.

This is all particularly beneficial to airlines, air traffic controllers, aviation authorities, and military defense organizations, giving insight into the modern airspace where ground systems fail to deliver.

2. Spire’s space-based aviation surveillance: The EURIALO program

In addition to providing real-time data to our customers, we are actively building next-generation surveillance capabilities through our partnership with the European Space Agency (ESA), European Satellite Services Provider (ESSP) and The German Space Agency ( DLR).

Overview of EURIALO

Spire was recently awarded a $16 million contract to design and demonstrate a LEO-based surveillance system as part of ESA’s EURIALO program. This system will outperform traditional ground-based infrastructure used for aviation and create a more resilient surveillance solution.

How does it work?

Direct signal collection: Spire satellites collect aircraft positional data (ADS-B signals) directly from transmitters aboard the plane. Spire’s satellites don’t rely on fixed infrastructure or vulnerable line-of-sight coverage like traditional ground stations. Instead, they capture ADS-B signals from LEO, giving sight across oceans, deserts, and remote territories – areas where ground surveillance stations are typically blind.

On-orbit processing: Signals are processed in LEO with Spire’s advanced software-defined radio (SDR) payloads, executing real-time demodulation, timestamping, and signal characterization directly onboard the satellite. This unique approach reduces data latency, enables rapid decision-making, and eliminates the need to downlink raw RF data before analysis – a critical differentiator in time-sensitive airspace management.

Ground delivery: Aircraft position updates are transmitted to ground stations in near real-time, delivering immediate visibility of aircraft movements. Spire’s global network of low-latency ground stations ensures rapid data dissemination to aviation customers and enables seamless operations, be it for national or commercial applications.

Dual capability: Surveillance + interference detection

EURIALO satellites will help solve two major challenges with a single unified system: aircraft tracking with near real-time updates for aircraft position and trajectory, and GNSS interference detection to help aircraft avoid interruptions in the airspace.

The dual capability drives security for decision-makers, knowing that they can both take a proactive approach to potential problems and manage the situation if unavoidable.

The future of aviation safety requires space-based solutions

The aviation industry can no longer rely on ground-based surveillance systems. They need future-ready management tools that are only accessible from space. 

Before we dig into the specifics, let’s briefly revisit two important questions.

1. Why are ground-based systems no longer enough? Line-of-sight restrictions, terrain interference, regional blackouts, and physical vulnerabilities.
2. Why is space-based surveillance a non-negotiable? A need for persistent global coverage, resilience to localized disruptions, and faster detection/response times.

The reality is that while ground stations still matter, they are not sufficient to safeguard the airspace. Space-based monitoring and detection are needed to build resilience against aviation projections.

Multilateration (MLAT) for GNSS-resilient positioning

While detecting GNSS interference is critical, it’s only half of the solution. When GNSS degrades or is denied, operators need to know when it occurs, immediately, and figure out exactly where aircraft are post-outage. This is where MLAT comes into play.

What is MLAT?

MLAT allows users to determine the location of an aircraft by comparing the time it takes for the ADS-B transmission to reach numerous receivers. Rather than relying on GNSS satellite timing, it functions independently, creating something that is inherently resistant to jamming and spoofing.

Why MLAT matters for aviation security

Independent Verification: MLAT offers a way to independently verify an aircraft’s location without relying solely on GNSS data.

Interference Resilience: Even in regions affected by jamming, MLAT provides reliable aircraft positioning.

Enhanced Safety: Layered surveillance methods (GNSS + MLAT) improve redundancy, instilling trust in aviation tracking systems.

Space-based MLAT, powered by Spire

At Spire, we are already building the foundation for space-based MLAT, which is able to be applied without launching a new class of satellites. It’s the orbital architecture and real-time data capabilities that make it possible.

• Distributed Satellite Coverage: Spire satellites simultaneously receive ADS-B signals from the same aircraft.
• Onboard Processing Power: SDRs analyze signal arrival times in orbit, enabling precise positioning calculations.
• Real-Time Ground Delivery: Final positions are relayed securely to aviation authorities or surveillance platforms within seconds.

Thanks to our already-operational constellations collecting ADS-B signals, MLAT techniques can be implemented, allowing us to deliver GNSS-resilient positioning at scale today.

What is multilateration (MLAT)?

Multilateration (MLAT) is a method that determines the location or position of an object by measuring the difference in arrival times of signals transmitted from the object and received by multiple satellites or ground stations. Unlike GPS, which relies on Time of Arrival (TOA) of satellite signals, MLAT uses the Time Difference of Arrival (TDOA) method to triangulate positions accurately.

The core principle of MLAT in aviation is straightforward: an aircraft’s transponder emits signals that are received by multiple strategically placed satellites or ground stations at slightly different times due to varying distances. By analyzing these time differences, the system triangulates the aircraft’s precise position. This makes MLAT highly resistant to GNSS interference as it does not depend on external satellite signals that can be jammed or spoofed. As such MLAT offers real-time surveillance independent of onboard navigation systems that strengthens air traffic surveillance, enhances flight operations, and improves situational awareness for air traffic controllers, military defense systems, and search-and-rescue operations.

How does MLAT work?

MLAT operates through a coordinated network of strategically placed satellites or ground stations that collect, process, and compute aircraft positioning data. The process includes the following steps:

1. Signal Transmission: Aircraft equipped with transponders (Mode S or ADS-B) continuously broadcast signals.
2. Signal Reception: Multiple satellites or ground stations receive the transmitted signals at slightly different times.
3. Accurate timestamping: Each satellite or ground station precisely records the arrival time of the signal.
4. Position Computation: The system calculates the aircraft’s position by analyzing the time differences between the received signals at various satellites.
5. Data Integration and Display: The computed position data is then transmitted to air traffic control (ATC) systems and integrated with radar and ADS-B data for enhanced situational awareness.
6. Continuous Tracking: The MLAT system continuously processes new signals to update aircraft positions in real time, ensuring accurate and dynamic tracking.

Application of MLAT in aviation

As GNSS interference incidents become more frequent and pose increasing risks to flight safety, MLAT has become an indispensable method for modern aviation surveillance. Its accuracy, cost-effectiveness, and independence from GNSS make it a critical tool different sectors and for different use cases, among which the most important are:

1. Air Traffic Control (ATC) and surveillance

Air Navigation Service Providers (ANSPs) integrate MLAT to enhance situational awareness and supplement traditional radars. Regulatory bodies such as the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and Eurocontrol employ MLAT into their surveillance networks to improve aircraft tracking in both terminal and airspace, improving operational efficiency and safety.

2. Enhanced ADS-B coverage and redundancy

While Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) is a key component of modern air traffic surveillance, MLAT provides an additional verification layer, ensuring seamless tracking even in non-radar airspace. This is crucial for enabling global coverage also over the regions where ADS-B infrastructure is limited or unreliable.

3. Search and rescue operations

MLAT plays a crucial role in search and rescue missions by accurately pinpointing distress signals from aircraft emergency locator transmitters (ELTs) or transponders. This capability significantly reduces response times and enhances recovery efforts for downed or missing aircraft.

4. Military and security applications

Defence and security agencies utilize MLAT to passively track non-cooperative aircraft, such as unidentified or suspicious flights. This enhances national security, border surveillance, and military defence operations.

Advantages of using space-based MLAT in aviation

Compared to traditional aircraft monitoring methods, space-based MLAT offers several key benefits:

• Safety of operations: MLAT is GNSS-independent and thus not susceptible to jamming or interference from electronic warfare.
• Cost-effectiveness: space-based MLAT provides worldwide coverage and requires significantly less infrastructure than radars, reducing operational and maintenance costs.
• Enhance coverage in challenging environments: space-based MLAT extends surveillance to areas with limited radar coverage, including mountainous terrain, remote regions, and offshore airspace.
• Seamless integration: space-based MLAT complements terrestrial ADS-B and primary radar systems, improving overall air traffic management.

Leveraging space-based MLAT with EURIALO next-generation space-based surveillance constellation

The EURIALO project is set to revolutionize global air traffic surveillance by deploying an advanced space-based MLAT constellation. With increasing threats to GNSS-reliant aircraft tracking, EURIALO introduces a cutting-edge solution that enhances air traffic monitoring even in remote and contested airspace.

EURIALO aims to launch a constellation of low-Earth orbit (LEO) satellites equipped with advanced Mode S and ADS-B signal reception and MLAT technology. These satellites will continuously receive aircraft transponder signals with their advanced antenna arrays and provide the data to ground-based station. From different signal transit time between the aircraft and the various satellites, the intersection point will be calculated to precisely determine aircraft positions, independent of GNSS. To ensure real-time data transmission, the satellites will establish direct and uninterrupted communication between themselves and ground stations using intersatellite links (ISL) and ground links, and thus minimize tracking gaps.

EURIALO in action

Conclusion

As global aviation faces increasing challenges from GNSS interference and evolving security threats, MLAT is proving to be a vital and resilient technology for aircraft monitoring. Its ability to provide real-time, interference-resistant positioning enhances aviation safety, operational efficiency, and national security.

The EURIALO project takes this advancement even further, integrating MLAT with space-based technology to create an unparalleled aircraft tracking system. By leveraging a constellation of LEO satellites, EURIALO will ensure cost-effective seamless, reliable and uninterrupted global coverage that surpasses traditional monitoring systems. It will not only strengthen air traffic surveillance but also mitigate the growing risks posed by GNSS vulnerabilities. As aviation continues to evolve, MLAT and EURIALO together represent a forward-looking solution for a safer and more efficient global airspace.

Ground-based cameras and ADS-B data: A step forward in validation contrail simulations

In a recent study, scientists at Imperial College London leveraged automatic dependent surveillance-broadcast (ADS-B) data from Spire Aviation, historical weather information, and contrail models to compare simulated contrails with those captured by ground-based cameras. The data was collected in Central London using a Raspberry Pi camera between October 2021 and April 2022. After excluding footage with low-level clouds or poor visibility, they analyzed 14 hours of video from five different days. ADS-B data and simulated contrail dimensions were overlaid on the video (see video below) to compare the formation, lifetime, and width of observed contrails.

Example of the ADS-B telemetries and simulated contrail segments that are superimposed to the video footage.

Comparing simulated and observed contrails: Insights from ADS-B data and weather models

A total of 1,582 waypoints from 281 flights were identified in the footage. The simulation accurately predicted contrail formation and their absence for about 75% of the waypoints, with errors occurring more often in warmer temperatures. Among the contrails observed, 73% had short lifetimes of less than two minutes, while 14% persisted for over 10 minutes.

Weather data from numerical prediction models generally indicated that short-lived contrails formed when the air was too dry to maintain ice (relative humidity with respect to ice, RHi < 100%), whereas long-lasting contrails were more likely when the air was ice-supersaturated (RHi > 100%).

On average, simulated contrail widths were approximately 100 meters narrower than those observed, with the largest discrepancies occurring in the first five minutes after formation. The differences between observed and simulated contrail properties may be due to uncertainties in weather data, aircraft performance estimates, simplifications in the contrail models, and challenges in detecting faint or overlapping contrails with natural clouds, among other factors.

Ground-based observations and ADS-B data: Key to advancing contrail and weather models

This study highlights how ground-based observations can be effectively used to evaluate the accuracy of weather and contrail models. Despite the small sample size and the focus on contrails formed in clear sky conditions, the results indicate that current contrail simulation tools accurately predict contrail formation around 75% of the time. Furthermore, existing weather models provide valuable insights into why some contrails last longer than others. The ADS-B telemetry data and contrail observations from this study offer an important benchmark data set that will help researchers refine, validate, and compare different weather and contrail models moving forward.

Unlock the power of space data to solve sustainability challenges

Contrail forecasting and monitoring

Contrails, those line-shaped clouds produced by aircraft exhaust, can significantly affect the atmosphere. Leading this innovative approach are organizations like Spire and Estuaire, which integrate ADS-B data with suite of web applications supporting airlines, lessors and aviation lenders in measuring and reducing their environmental impact.

Spire harnesses an extensive network of satellites combined with terrestrial data inputs to gather comprehensive aircraft positional data. This data is compiled into Flight Report, which compiles hundreds of millions of daily satellite and terrestrial ADS-B positions into a streamlined, one-row-per-flight format that includes comprehensive flight and aircraft data, tailored for post-flight analytics and reporting purposes. In collaboration with Estuaire, which specializes in the monitoring and analysis of aviation emissions (CO2, non-CO2, and lifecycle effects), Spire’s data enriches the understanding of flight routes and operations. This collaboration delivers precise, historic flight insights, crucial for a detailed and accurate evaluation of the environmental impacts associated with each flight.

Fuel consumption & carbon emissions

ADS-B data is also instrumental in analyzing and optimizing fuel consumption and carbon emissions. A study by Delft University of Technology (TU Delft) and Spire Global investigated how flight emissions are influenced by upper wind components – wind speed and direction of the wind at high altitudes – over the North Atlantic Ocean.

Dr. Junzi Sun’s research utilized space-based ADS-B data from Spire’s LEMUR satellites, combined with historical weather forecasts, to reconstruct accurate 4D flight trajectories. The study revealed how ADS-B data in combination with weather data contribute to more accurate assessment of emission at the flight level.

Difference in CO² estimation (ton/flight)

To enhance the understanding of different complexities to accurately map out the spatial and temporal distribution of aviation emissions, Imperial College London leveraged ADS-B telemetry from Spire Aviation to develop the Global Aviation Emissions Inventory (GAIA), cataloging over 103.7 million unique flight trajectories between 2019 and 2021. This inventory examines how emissions correlate with flight distances, explores regional variations in fuel consumption, and highlights the differences in emissions between short-haul and long-haul flights. This advanced insights significantly improve the accuracy of assessing non-CO2 impacts associated with global aviation activities.

The impact of comprehensive and real-time ADS-B data

The real-time precision and comprehensive coverage of ADS-B data allow for continuous monitoring and detailed analysis of flights. This enables a deeper understanding of how different factors—such as aircraft type, passenger load, wind conditions, and engine efficiency—affect fuel consumption and emissions on specific routes. By identifying these variables, airlines can optimize flight paths, improve operational efficiency, and ultimately, reduce their environmental footprint.

Conclusion

ADS-B data is more than just a tool for air traffic management; it’s a pivotal component in the aviation industry’s journey toward sustainability. By enabling more accurate emissions tracking and offering insights into environmental impacts at the flight level, ADS-B dataset helps create a foundation for actionable strategies to achieve greener aviation practices. As the industry continues to evolve, the role of ADS-B data will undoubtedly expand, further supporting global efforts to make aviation more sustainable.

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What is GPS jamming and spoofing?

• GPS jamming happens when a device sends out signals that interfere with those from GPS satellites, disrupting navigation systems.
• GPS spoofing is more dangerous. It sends false GPS data to an aircraft, with the goal of tricking the aircraft into thinking it’s in a different location.

Both tactics are increasingly used in and around conflict zones, especially in the Middle East and Eastern Europe. Planes in these regions are losing access to reliable navigation data, which can render systems like autopilot and GPS-based navigation unusable—sometimes even steering flights off course.

Why is this a growing concern for aviation?

Hundreds of flights worldwide are experiencing GPS spoofing daily, putting pilots and passengers at risk. When a plane loses its GPS signal or receives false location data, the margin for error for being able to locate itself widens. This has the potential to be catastrophic in high-traffic airspace or near sensitive military zones. As GPS signals degrade, a plane’s ability to transmit its location accurately decreases, raising the risk of straying into no-fly zones. Luckily, flights have fallback systems, but they’re often less reliable than GPS.

The bigger threat: GPS spoofing

GPS spoofing is even more dangerous because it sends fake GPS data to the aircraft. Planes may unknowingly follow incorrect routes, flying off course. In the last 8 months, commercial aviation has seen a sharp increase in spoofing events over the Middle East and even in Polish airspace.

When spoofing happens, the plane’s Inertial Reference System (IRS) tries to verify its position using the spoofed GPS data, often failing to detect the manipulation. Unlike jamming, which simply blocks the signal, spoofing actively misleads the aircraft’s navigation system.

How planes detect GPS spoofing:

1. Sudden Jump in Estimated Position: Planes might see their location jump tens of miles away in seconds.
2. Dead Reckoning: With GPS gone, the plane’s systems switch to estimating location based on speed and direction—similar to how ships navigated before GPS.
3. Clock Skew: Spoofing can throw off the plane’s onboard clock, adding confusion to an already dangerous situation.

What can be done about GPS spoofing?

To combat these threats, organizations like Spire are using advanced Radio Frequency Geolocation (RFGL) technology to help authorities identify and locate bad actors on the ground. While aircraft systems like the IRS can provide some backup against GPS jamming, there’s still no more comprehensive solutions for GPS spoofing at the moment. Spire Aviation is addressing this gap in aviation with the EURIALO program. Using the RF signals, Spire’s satellites will provide data to ground-based systems that can accurately determine the position of any aircraft. As several satellites receive the same aircraft signal, the intersection point is calculated from the different signal transit times between the aircraft and the various satellites. The position of the aircraft can thus be reliably and accurately determined, independent of GNSS. This information is then relayed to the ground infrastructure to assist air traffic control in monitoring and managing air traffic.

As we see an uptick in GPS jamming and spoofing, especially in conflict areas, it’s essential for aviation to adopt better safeguards and monitoring systems to ensure the safety of passengers and crew.

Learn more about GNSS interference

The effectiveness of their solution critically depends on the quality of the data used. Only high-quality global coverage data can yield useful and reliable results, ensuring that as much airborne traffic as possible can be considered for modelling.

Elevate your drone operations: simplifying air risk analysis with Skyy Network

Skyy’s risk assessment API streamlines the process for their end user’s customers-drone operators-to quantitatively analyse the air risk associated with their flights. With just one click, drone operators can view which areas and at what altitudes their drone operations carry a minimal risk of encountering manned air traffic. This intuitive tool not only enhances safety but also facilitates faster regulatory approvals for drone activities, making it an essential asset for operators looking to optimize their operations.

How Dronedesk integrates Skyy Network’s air risk API for smarter drone operations

One of Skyy Network’s end customers, Dronedesk, provides a comprehensive web-based platform for managing drone operations, making it easier and more efficient for operators to plan safe flights. This planning process requires consideration of numerous factors, including risks to people on the ground and other users of manned airspace.

Skyy Network’s air risk API effectively addresses these concerns and seamlessly integrates with Dronedesk’s planning tool. This integration enables users of all sizes, from solo operators to large organizations, to effortlessly incorporate air risk assessments into their regular operation workflows.

For more advanced use cases, drone operators using Dronedesk can leverage Skyy’s advanced risk assessment technology to explore how air risk profiles change with different variables taken into account. Factors such as the time of day, day of the week, and varying operational altitudes can significantly influence risk assessment results. This capability enables operators to safely manage even the most challenging drone operations by adjusting their strategies based on detailed risk insights.

With the space-based global coverage offered by Spire Aviation data and its integration into these tools significantly cut down the hours of administrative work for drone teams by automating the collection of air, ground, and weather intelligence data. It ensures that all risk factors are covered, allowing teams to concentrate on the core aspect of drone operation—flying safely and efficiently while adhering to the standards set by Civil Aviation Authorities. This partnership highlights Spire Aviation’s primary objective of improving the safety and operational efficiency of airspace management.

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Leading aircraft types fleet & operator analysis

Narrowbody fleet overview

Airframe	Tech	Number of Aircraft	Production Run	Average Age	Market Value USD bn
B738 (737-800)	Old	4,696	1998 – 2020	12.53	81.40
A320 (A320ceo)	New	1,913	2014 – current	3.62	69.90
A20N (A320neo)	Old	4,090	1988 – 2021	13.92	62.35
A321 (A321ceo)	New	1,279	2016 – current	2.51	60.85
B38M (737 MAX 8)	New	1,234	2017 – current	2.68	49.76
A21N (A321neo)	Old	1,652	1995 – 2021	11.46	36.90
Total		14,864			361.17

Source: AviationValues

Preeminent by a significant margin amongst the main narrowbody fleet types in service today are the B738 (737-800) and A320 (A320ceo), which together comprise 59% by aircraft count. Both these airframe types have had very long production runs, but have recently been superseded on the assembly line by the B38M (737 MAX 8) and A21N (A321neo) respectively. Consequently, their aggregate share of the fleet by Market Value is now at just under 40%, although the B738 retains the leading spot across the leading narrowbody models.

The B738, B38M, A320 and A20N serve what has historically been the core narrowbody capacity segment: both the B738 and B38M have maximum seating for 189 passengers (the MAX 8 200 subvariant being an exception, with high density seating for up to 200). The A320 and A20N can accommodate slightly more than their standard Boeing competitors, seating up to 195 passengers. However, many operators operate these aircraft at lower seating densities, with two class layouts for between 140 and 172 passengers being typical across these four airframe types.

The centre of gravity of this core has been gradually moving upwards. The backlog for the A21N has surpassed that of the A20N backlog, which is a feat the A321 never came close to accomplishing versus the A320. Boeing’s competing B3XM (737 MAX 10) also has a strong orderbook, although it is yet to be certified and its timeline for entry into service remains a question mark.

With such a large number of aircraft to replace, old technology aircraft still account for 70% of the narrowbody fleet.

Narrowbody by new tech vs old tech

Top operators for narrowbody aircraft (based on the number of flights)

In Asia, the A320’s presence is notably supported by two major Chinese carriers, China Eastern and China Southern, alongside an unexpectedly robust operation by EasyJet Europe. Meanwhile, routes to South America are primarily served by JetBlue and Vueling. The global network of the busiest B38M routes benefits from a diverse mix of carriers, from low cost options like Ryanair and Malta Air to traditional airlines such as Southwest and United Airlines. This pattern is similarly observed with the B738, where Ryanair and Malta Air are predominantly focused on European routes, which have not been highlighted among the busiest ones in our analysis.

Widebody fleet overview

Airframe	Tech	Number of Aircraft	Production Run	Average Age	Market Value USD bn
B77W (777-300ER)	Old	816	2004 – 2022	11.06	33.43
A333 (A330-300)	Old	686	1993 – 2022	12.52	13.66
B789 (787-9)	New	626	2014 – current	5.72	53.90
A359 (A350-900)	New	501	2014 – current	4.50	51.74
A332 (A330-200)	Old	478	1998 – 2019	14.87	7.82
B763 (767-300/300ER)	Old	280	1986 – 2014	24.27	2.54
Total		3,387			163.08

Source: AviationValues

From a fleet count perspective, the picture of the leading widebody types in current service presents a somewhat more balanced picture: the proportion of the narrowbody fleet that is dominated by two models is split across three in the widebody sector: the B77W (777-300ER), A333 (A330-300) and B789 (787-9). The two most popular widebody models account for 44%.

By Market Value, the difference between the current production of new technology models and the older technology types is stark: the B789 and A359 (A350-900) comprise nearly two thirds of the leading widebody fleet’s Market Value despite only accounting for one third by aircraft count.  By contrast, the B763 (767-300/300ER), as the model that has been out of production the longest, comprises less than 2% of the aggregate Market Value. It clearly continues to have a significant presence in terms of fleet count, but is sunsetting.

Widebodies have tended to have somewhat shorter replacement cycles than narrowbodies, and this is reflected in the slightly larger share of new technology widebodies as compared to the narrowbody fleet. However, both manufacturers face challenges in increasing the pace of replacement with new technology model deliveries. Boeing’s 777X programme has faced significant delays in gaining entry into service: originally slated for 2020, the manufacturer has indicated 2025 as its target, but recent comments from the aircraft’s largest customer Emirates hint at 2026.

This has primarily benefitted the B77W, which as the largest twinjet has also been the main recipient of traffic that had previously been carried by the largest widebody quadjets, the Boeing 747 and Airbus A380, where carriers had opted to permanently retire those aircraft after the pandemic.

Widebody by new vs old tech:

Top operators for widebody aircraft (based on the number of flights)

The A332 (A330-200) model sees a notable presence in China through primary operators Air China and China Eastern. Hawaiian Airlines is also a significant A332 operator, deploying the aircraft on trunk connections to the US mainland.

Middle Eastern routes utilising the A333 (A330-300) are predominantly served by Saudi and Turkish Airlines, while the B77W (777-300ER) adds Emirates and Qatar Airlines to its roster, expanding the network.

In Asia, the A333’s operations are led by Air China and China Eastern. Although the B789 busiest routes were between different Chinese cities, these are operated by diverse international leaders like All Nippon, Etihad, Air Canada, Hainan, and United Airlines.

Singapore Airlines and Lufthansa dominate the A359 (A350-900) routes connecting Japanese cities, contrasting with the B763 (767-300/300ER), primarily in the hands of cargo giants FedEx, United Parcel, and Air Transport, alongside Japan Airlines Domestic for domestic flights, showcasing a concentration of operations within Japan.

Flight capacity transformation of the top narrow and widebody aircraft leaders

Reviewing the top narrowbody aircraft reveals consistent leaders, with the B738 leading at approximately 5,000 active aircraft and the A320 following with about 4,000 active aircraft over the past four years. A shift is observed in third place since 2022, with the A20N surpassing the A321, reaching almost 1700 aircraft in 2024, while the A321 remains close behind with approximately 1600. Looking back to Covid-19 times in 2020, the B38M had only 80 active aircraft, yet it has gradually increased annually, overtaking the A21N in 2024 with over 1200. Although our analysis is limited to the first quarter of 2024, the evolving competition, particularly for the fifth position, remains a point of interest as the year progresses.

Change in the number of aircraft by top operating narrowbody aircraft over the years

In the widebody aircraft category, the B77W stands out as the clear leader, operating about 800 active aircraft on average annually. The competition for second place is closely contested between Boeing and Airbus models. The A333 was ahead in 2020, but by 2022, the B763 reached parity in the number of active aircraft and then exceeded its Airbus counterpart by 30 in 2023 and it continues the trend into the first quarter of 2024. Another Boeing model, the B789, has also seen a slight increase in the number of operating aircraft, moving from around 500 to over 600 in the early part of 2024. Among the remaining top aircraft, Airbus models are vying for dominance, with the A359 nearly matching the A332’s fleet size last year and surpassing it in the first quarter of 2024.

Change in the number of active aircraft by top operating widebody aircraft over the years

Narrowbody aircraft by regional spread

Widebody aircraft by regional spread

Region	Widebody Fleet Rank by Fleet Count	Narrowbody Fleet Rank by Fleet Count	Overall Fleet Rank by Fleet Count
Asia	1	1	1
Europe	2	2	2
North America	4	3	3
Middle East	3	5	4
Latin America and Caribbean	8	4	5
Commonwealth of Independent States	6	6	6
Africa	5	7	7
Oceania	7	8	8

An analysis of these leading aircraft type fleets by region reveals some interesting insights:

• The B738 (737-800) is the standout star of the 737 Next Generation family. The A320 (A320ceo) is scarcely less popular, and its larger sibling the A321 (A321ceo) is also well represented across regions
• While North America is ranked third overall, it operates a diverse fleet of narrowbodies that are not represented in the leading global types, particularly other members of the Boeing 737 Next Generation family such as the 737-700 (557) and 737-900/900ER (402)
• The Middle East is a region of widebodies (and adding Emirates’ fleet of 131 Airbus A380s to the consideration would underscore that even further) whereas North America appears relatively underweight given its overall size. This speaks to the difference in market dynamics: the Middle East is primarily a connecting region for global long haul travel, whereas North America is primarily short to medium haul domestic and intra-regional operations
• Asia’s sheer population and geographic size mean that it has both large domestic markets (China, Japan, India) and far flung regional population centres that demand both narrowbody and regional connectivity. The A333 (A330-300) and B77W (777-300ER) are the widebody regional workhorses, with the A320 and B738 dominating amongst narrowbodies

Comparative analysis: Passenger vs. cargo flight operations of narrow and widebody aircraft

Passenger vs cargo flights operated in 2023 by narrowbody aircraft

Let’s delve deeper into the varied operational purposes of aircraft, focusing particularly on how they’re employed across the aviation sector. Among the myriad of narrowbody aircraft models, the B738 and A321 emerge as versatile players. These models uniquely straddle the worlds of both cargo and passenger aviation, showcasing their adaptability and critical role in global logistics and passenger transport.

Airframe	Freighter version?	Factory built fleet	Passenger conversion fleet	Factory built backlog
B738 (737-800)	Y	n/a	177	n/a
A320 (A320ceo)	Y	n/a	0	n/a
A20N (A320neo)	N	n/a	0	n/a
A321 (A321ceo)	Y	n/a	40	n/a
B38M (737 MAX 8)	N	n/a	0	n/a
A21N (A321neo)	N	n/a	0	n/a
Total			217

Source: AviationValues

While these two models demonstrate a broad scope of applications, the majority of narrowbody fleets are still primarily tasked with commercial passenger operations, catering to the global demand for passenger travel with only a very small proportion allocated for private flights.

Passenger vs cargo utilization by widebody aircraft

When shifting our focus to widebody aircraft, the scenario changes markedly. Apart from the B77W, B789, and A359, which currently only serve commercial passenger routes (although the freighter conversion for the B77W is nearing service entry and Airbus’ factory built A350F has a backlog of 55 orders), the majority of other leading widebody models are utilized for both commercial and cargo operations.

Airframe	Freighter version?	Factory built fleet	Passenger conversion fleet	Factory built backlog
B77W (777-300ER)	Y	N	0	n/a
A333 (A330-300)	Y	N	19	n/a
B789 (787-9)	N	n/a	n/a	n/a
A359 (A350-900)	Y*	0	0	55*
A332 (A330-200)**	Y	38	10	0
B763 (767-300/300ER)	Y	245	202	28
Total		283	231	83

Source: AviationValues

* A350F factory built freighter is a distinct A350 variant based on a shortened A350-1000 platform, not the A350-900

** A330-200F factory built freighter features a lengthened nose landing gear to enable a level cargo deck. This feature is not available on passenger conversions

As illustrated earlier in this article, AviationValues’ fleet data shows that the B763 (767-300/300ER) has been out of production as a passenger model for ten years now. In that time it has enjoyed commercial success as a freighter conversion platform. A factory  built freighter is also in production. As a result, in recent years the B763 has been more frequently deployed for cargo missions than passenger services, thereby securing its position as the foremost cargo aircraft among widebody models.

Gateway giants: Identifying top departure airports for top narrow and widebody aircraft

Top departure airports for leading narrowbody aircraft

Having analysed the leading narrowbody aircraft operators, let’s dive into the busiest departure airports for these aircraft.

Looking at Airbus’s prime narrowbody contenders, their busiest airports are located in India, Turkey, and the United States. The A20N and A21N primarily serve routes in India, whereas the A321 has a stronger presence in the US. The Airbus model with a global spread of the busiest airports is the A320, operating out of South America (Bogotá), Europe (Paris and Barcelona) and Asia (Jakarta and Kuala Lumpur).

On the Boeing front, both the B38M and B738 models are most prominently represented in the US (Dallas) with the B738 additionally operating in China (Yunnan and Shenzhen).

Top departure airports for leading widebody aircraft

Turning to widebody aircraft, their notable footprint in Asia, especially China, becomes apparent. Beijing tops the list of the busiest airports for the majority of aircraft (A332, A333, A359, and B789), with Hong Kong following closely for the A333 and A359. The A332 also operates significantly from Chengdu and Shanghai.

Widebody operations also feature strongly in the Middle East, with the B789, B77W, and A333 making their mark. Routes served by widebodies tend to be more limited across both North and South America: only the B763 makes the global list of most active routes, and only from North America.

Flight patterns unveiled: Mapping the busiest narrow and widebody routes of 2023

Busiest regional and intercontinental routes of narrowbody aircraft in 2023

Delving into the top five routes, excluding round trips to the same airport, we found that the A20N and A21N mainly cater to the increasing demand of India’s domestic market, linking Mumbai and New Delhi with Bengaluru, and the A20N extending the connection to Kolkata as well. The A20N also serves high demand routes in the Middle East, connecting Jeddah and Riyadh in Saudi Arabia. The A21N’s most frequently flown routes also include domestic travel between two Indian airports (Mumbai – New Delhi) and domestic routes within Korea (Seoul – Jeju).

The narrowbody presence in Asia is not surprising based on the previously analysed busiest airport data. This trend continues with the other Airbus models (A320 and A321), where the A320 connects destinations in Indonesia and Thailand, and the A321’s prime routes facilitate domestic travel within Vietnam.

Among all the narrowbodies, the A320 is the only one with the busiest routes in South America, more specifically within Colombia. The B38M showcases the broadest global presence, with routes making the global busiest routes list in North America (Vancouver – Calgary, Hawaiian interisland); Central America (Mexico City – Cancún); Asia (Mumbai – Bengaluru); and the Middle East (Dubai – Muscat). Rounding out the narrowbodies is the  B738, whose busiest routes are focused within Australia and South Korea.

Busiest regional and intercontinental routes of widebody aircraft in 2023

The correlation between route analysis and the busiest airports data reveals a distinct pattern, especially the prevalence of widebody aircraft serving China, Japan and South Korea, where they facilitate a higher volume of connections compared to narrowbody counterparts.

In China, the A332 leads in establishing key connections, linking major cities like Beijing with Shanghai, Lhasa with Chengdu, and Shenzhen with Shanghai. The B789 is also notable for its routes between Shenzhen and Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shanghai, and Beijing and Shenzhen. Additionally, the Beijing route is catered to by the A333 and B77W.

In South Korea, the A333 also connects Jeju to Seoul (Gimpo), while the A359 features heavily on domestic Japanese corridors to Tokyo from Sapporo, Fukuoka and Okinawa. The Tokyo market is also served strongly by the B763 from Sapporo, Hiroshima, and Kagoshima.

In the Middle East, the A333 and B77W stand out as the leading widebody models serving this region, with significant routes including Cairo – Jeddah (A333) Jeddah – Riyadh (A333), Jeddah – Jakarta (B77W).

In the Americas, the B763 is a stalwart of the key New York – Los Angeles transcontinental route, as well as services between Miami and Bogotá. The busiest transatlantic route between New York and London Heathrow is served by the B77W, which also serves the transpacific route connecting San Francisco to Taipei. The A332 serves the main Honolulu – Los Angeles service linking  Hawaii with the US mainland.

Conclusion

In the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic, the global aviation sector has undergone significant transformations. Newer technology airframes took centre stage during the initial recovery process, but in more recent months older technology types have experienced a resurgence as demand has rebounded faster than the available supply. The main aircraft types are firmly entrenched, stalwarts of the markets they serve. Geographic distinctions between markets may favour one type over another, but in general the leading aircraft types are all global players.

Beyond satisfying intellectual curiosity, knowing the market dynamics of each region and the aircraft and operators that serve it, is fundamental to making good investment decisions. The analysis above is merely scratching the surface of the potential insights available from Spire Aviation and AviationValues data. Get in touch to know and understand more.

Unravelling flight density and strategic routes in 2023

Examining flight density reveals that passenger flights significantly outnumbered cargo flights, nearly doubling their presence. Within regional operations, America took the lead in cargo flights (704k flights), followed by Asia (282k flights) and Europe (210k flights), while Asia claimed the top spot for intercontinental air cargo (98k flights).

In terms of passenger travel, America emerged as the busiest region (11,3 million flights), closely trailed by Asia (10,5 million flights), with Europe securing the third position with half as many flights. Regarding intercontinental travel, Asia and Europe stood out as among the most popular destinations.

 

Let’s look into which regional and intercontinental routes experienced the highest service frequency:

	Cargo Flights	Passenger Flights
Regional	Kahului – Honolulu	Seoul – Jeju
	Los Angeles – Memphis	Melbourne – Sydney
	Miami – Kentucky	Ho Chi Minh airports
	Honolulu – Kalaoa	Tokyo – Hokkaido
	Shenzhen – Hangzhou	Riyad – Jeddah
Intercontinental	Hong Kong – Anchorage	Kuala Lampur – Singapore
	Bogota – Miami	Jeddah – Cairo
	Seoul – Anchorage	Singapore – Jakarta
	Quito – Miami	Incheon – Osaka
	Anchorage – New York	Incheon – Tokyo

Top 5 aircraft dominating cargo and passenger travel in 2023

When it comes to aircraft analysis, Boeing emerged as the leader in cargo transportation, while Airbus took center stage in the realm of passenger travel. The B767-300F performed 315k cargo flights, followed by B777-200F with 179k cargo flights. Although Airbus dominates the Top 5, the number one spot based on the number of operated flights goes to B737-800 with over 6,4m flights. The leading Airbus aircraft following is A320-200 with half of the flights ~ 3,7 million.

This division of dominance underscores the industry’s response to the dual demands of efficiently moving goods and providing comfortable, fuel-efficient options for an ever-growing number of passengers.

Top 5 aircraft types by the number of flights they operated

 

When analysing which aircraft type dominated the skies based on the number of kilometres it flew, the pictures changes. In the cargo sector, Boeing 777-200F led the way with over 961m kilometres, followed by B767-300F (612m kilometres) and B747-400 with 525m kilometres.

On the other side, despite the Airbus dominance among passenger aircraft with the highest number of flown kilometres, the first spot still goes to Boeing 737-800 with over 8bn kilometres. The remaining 4 spots are taken by Airbus A320 family aircraft with roughly half the distance flown.

Top 5 based on kilometers flown:

Concluding insights on aviation’s dynamic journey in 2023

Leveraging space-based aviation insights has proven to be a transformative catalyst in enhancing decision-making processes within the industry. The utilization of satellite data and flight data analytics enables stakeholders to attain a comprehensive and real-time understanding of global aviation dynamics.

This wealth of information fosters a heightened level of transparency, allowing for a more accurate assessment of air traffic patterns, distribution of travel trends between regional and intercontinental flights, maintenance requirements for different aircraft types and fleet utilisation between Airbus and Boeing jets. The access to rich aviation data facilitates faster response times to unforeseen events, enabling airlines, regulators, and other industry players to adapt swiftly and efficiently. Moreover, space-based insights contribute to efficient time management by optimizing route planning, fuel consumption, and overall operational efficiency, ultimately ushering in a new era of precision and effectiveness in the aviation sector.

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Unveiling the EURIALO project: What is it?

The EURIALO project will design and demonstrate a novel and independent space system that uses a satellite constellation to track aircraft by determining their exact position based on different times of arrivals of radio frequency (RF) signals. In other words, it will geolocate a radio signal from space, a technology known as multilateration (MLAT).

Today, aircraft are independently tracked by terrestrial systems such as radar, a technology used from 1930s onwards. This method has a range of limitations; for example, the need of line of sight, obstacles like mountains, tall structures that limit signal reception meaning that remote or oceanic areas cannot be covered at all. Furthermore, many of these systems need to interrogate aircraft transponders and this often creates a problem of over interrogation which may result in excessive interference and the aircraft inability to reply in extreme cases.

EURIALO’s key objective is to close the gaps and interference exposure left by conventional terrestrial-based tracking systems and dependent space systems, by introducing an independent passive satellite-based surveillance solution of global flight movements.

The importance of establishing an independent aviation surveillance system

Existing space-based air traffic surveillance systems gather ADS-B data, which rely on Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) to deliver data. However, GNSS services are vulnerable to interference and spoofing, posing a significant risk and challenge to reliable and resilient air traffic surveillance.

The vulnerabilities of GNSS can result in inaccuracies when tracking aircraft positions, ultimately affecting the efficiency of air traffic control operations and risking safe operations. This is why the development and implementation of a global flight tracking system that is independent from GNSS systems is a critical step toward enhancing air traffic safety and security.

Such a system would provide a resilient solution for tracking aircraft, reducing the dependency from GNSS and ensuring the continuous monitoring of air traffic. This redundancy in surveillance technology not only safeguards the efficiency of air travel but also strengthens aviation’s resilience against potential threats and disruptions.

Unveiling the new constellation’s operation – GNSS-independent capability

A constellation of EURIALO satellites will establish 100% global coverage, capturing the automatic and frequent radio signals emitted by aircraft during data transmissions. Orbiting in LEO, these satellites will deploy their antenna arrays to consistently receive and track these signals.

Using the RF signals, these satellites will provide data to ground-based systems that can accurately determine the position of the aircraft. As several satellites receive the same aircraft signal, the intersection point is calculated from the different signal transit times between the aircraft and the various satellites. The position of the aircraft can thus be reliably and accurately determined, independent of GNSS. This information is then relayed to the ground infrastructure to assist air traffic control in monitoring and managing air traffic.

To achieve real-time data transmission, the satellites need to establish direct communication among themselves or via intermediary relay stations. These intersatellite links (ISL) enable uninterrupted communication between all constellation satellites and ground stations. By complementing terrestrial radar surveillance, the system strives to notably enhance the safety of air traffic.

EURIALO in action: Implementation approach

Under the three-year contract, Spire will develop the mission and system design for a full global operational satellite constellation, and then design, deploy and operate a demonstrator mission planned to be launched in 2025 that validates the performance of the designed system and critical technologies.

Spire is leading a consortium of major industry players, including ESSP-SAS as a sub-contractor through both phases. Following the initial design and demonstrator phases, there is the opportunity to be selected to build out the full constellation, consisting of a large number of satellites.

The EURIALO project extends beyond providing dependable and resilient surveillance of air traffic, it will complement the envisioned European air traffic communication, navigation, and surveillance framework. It will also harmonize seamlessly with global air traffic management to achieve the capability of independent real-time global aircraft tracking from departure to arrival, completing the necessity for a resilient space-based infrastructure to strengthen secure, eco-friendly, and efficient air travel at a global scale.

Read the EURIALO project press release

Flight patterns unveiled: Monthly trends in air traffic volume and route landscape

Chinese international flight activity only began to regain momentum earlier this year, following the final relaxation of stringent Covid-19 measures. Prior to January 2023, the country maintained a consistent inflow, averaging over 10,300 flights per month. Since the reopening of its borders to international travellers, China has been witnessing a steady monthly upsurge in tourist arrivals, culminating in the highest count of flights (over 41,000) recorded in July 2023. This signifies a fourfold increase in flight volume compared to the same month in the previous year. In contrast, the United States has maintained stable international flight density over the past year, with an average of over 121,100 flights per month, as the market had already rebounded from health-related restrictions. Notably, during the peak of summer holidays in July 2023, both the US and China experienced their highest influx of travellers in the last year and a half.

A more distinct scenario arises when contrasting China and US domestic flight operations. US flight volumes remained relatively stable around 595,600 flights per month, surpassing 600,000 flights per month by March 2023. Conversely, China’s domestic flight sector faced a slower initial recovery, influenced by varying travel measures that impacted domestic flight density. The data clearly shows instances of heightened restrictions leading to flight reductions twice in the past year. After the complete removal of all travel obstacles, domestic flight density increased by 53%.

Route revisions: Analysing the shifting air travel map in the US and China

With the constantly growing increase in the air traffic and passenger demand for more connectivity, we investigated how this dynamic has influenced the route landscape of the US and China. Based on our analysis, both markets have focused on reestablishing or strengthening domestic and regional connections.

Flight routes added in August 2023 in China

Bearing in mind that China only started to reopen to international travellers beginning of 2023, it comes as no surprise that the majority of new routes added are domestic (Shanghai, Macau, Hong Kong and Chengdu) or regional ones (Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea and Japan). Internationally, connections to Dubai, Moscow, and London were reestablished, while flight routes with substantial service before the pandemic (Paris, Toronto, Tel Aviv, Chicago) are yet to be fully restored.

The priority given to domestic and regional strengthening was a feature for the US as well, with domestic service growth out of cities such as Denver, New York, Los Angeles and Dallas-Fort Worth; and regional services to Montreal, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. Longer haul connections were also reestablished from US hubs to Italy, Japan and Peru. In August 2023 some international routes were also , for example from different American cities to Lima, Mexico and Shanghai.

Flight routes added in August 2023 in the US

 

Wings of Influence: Exploring the Commercial Passenger Fleets Development in the US and China

This comparative analysis delves into the yearlong overview of the world’s two largest economies’ fleets, examining them based on two key parameters: number of flights and fleet size. By assessing these metrics, we uncover the underlying factors that contribute to their prominence. Let’s start by looking into the US and China flight density from August 2022 to August 2023.

Based on Number of Flights

US Flights

During the analysed year, Southwest Airlines stood out among the leading commercial passenger fleets. With an average of 112,100 flights per month, the airline maintained its position as the most active commercial airline. Following closely in second place was American Airlines, operating over 90,960 flights per month. Delta Air Lines secured the third position with an average of 87,100 flights per month.

In the initial half of 2022, SkyWest Airlines and United Airlines vied for the fourth and fifth rankings, maintaining average monthly flight counts ranging from 53,000 to 67,000. Transitioning to the latter half of 2022 and extending throughout 2023, United Airlines secured the fourth spot by augmenting its flight count to over 70,000, while SkyWest Airlines consistently maintained its average of 57,000 flights per month.

China Flights

The Chinese air transport market witnessed more significant changes. The ranking of the top three Chinese carriers was in a state of flux during the initial half of 2022, but has since stabilised, with China Eastern securing its position by operating nearly 755,000 flights over an eighteen-month period. In second place, China Southern operated 643,000 flights, followed by Air China with 499,000 flights during the same period. The remaining two slots within the top 5 experienced considerable changes. Throughout the majority of 2022, Xiamen Airlines and Sichuan Airlines managed to hold their positions, but in 2023, they were overtaken by Hainan Airlines and Azur Air.

Based on Fleet Development

For the 12 months ending 31 August 2023, AviationValues has detailed fleet growth for all the Top 5 US operators. The leading airline by increase in fleet size was Southwest Airlines. Its fleet has grown by 101 aircraft within the timeframe. As will be investigated further on, its Boeing 737 MAX 8 fleet has increased by 110 aircraft, taking them from 92 to 202 MAX 8 aircraft by August 2023.

Within China we have seen a more modest fleet growth for the 5 top operators. Unlike the US and other nations, China took a cautious approach in the post Covid-19 environment, and this had a knock on effect to the full continuation of both regional and international air travel.

Geopolitics is a consideration here: imports of US manufactured aircraft have stopped. Most  notably, the Boeing 737 MAX given the existing backlog with Chinese operators. Aside from Boeing aircraft, China Eastern Airlines has led the way with the addition of 27 aircraft in the period. In contrast, we have seen Hainan reduce the fleet size by seven aircraft as it aims to stabilise following ownership restructuring.

Fleet growth for the 12 months ending 31 August 2023 for the US and China is depicted below.

Sky economics: Analysing the market value of US and China fleets

Considering the chart below which depicts the Top 5 US Operators by Market Value for the 12 month period ending 31 August 2023, United Airlines is clearly the biggest mover, due to an influx of Boeing 737 MAX 8 and MAX 9 aircraft. United’s Widebody additions are limited to the Boeing 787-10, but combined with MAX additions, more than outweigh new delivery volumes at other US Majors, American Airlines and Delta Air Lines. During the 12 months, United also parted with numerous 737-700, A319ceo, and A320ceo aircraft.

Like Southwest Airlines, Alaska Airlines is a Narrowbody only operator, but it is categorised as a full service carrier. It is one of ten current and future Boeing 737 MAX 9 operators (along with United), it has received this aircraft variant exclusively during our analysis period as Boeing worked through the idle MAX backlog following the MAX grounding, Covid-19, and aircraft rework.

As of 30 September 2023, Alaska Airlines is an all Boeing operator, having exited its last of ten previously operated A321neos. Other significant fleet exits during the period were Airbus A320ceo and A321ceo aircraft. In coming years, the total fleet Market Value should continue to grow with the arrival of both the 737 MAX 8 and 737 MAX 10 to its fleet. It could be expected that its oldest 737NG in fleet, namely 737-700s and 737-900s, will be the first aircraft replaced, although no retirement strategy has been announced. Alaska Airlines places fifth in US operator total fleet Market Values.

Across the Pacific, the total Market Value of China Eastern Airlines’ and China Southern Airlines’ fleets has converged for the 12 months ending 31 August 2023. The gap has narrowed due to more new delivery aircraft entering China Eastern Airlines’ fleet during the period. There have been few fleet exits, including Boeing 737NG and Airbus A320ceo Family aircraft, from both airlines. China Eastern Airlines has made significant additions to its A320neo and A350-900 fleet in 12 month period whereas China Southern Airlines has added A320neo, A321neo and A350-900 types from Airbus.

Air China has also had a marked fleet Market Value rise due to the delivery of nine new A350-900s. Another followed in September. Air China exited some 737-800, A320ceo and A330-300. The following chart shows the Top 5 Chinese operators by total Market Value for the 12 month period.

Uncovering the usage and level of technology

Our analysis shows that both countries’ fleets centre on two main types of aircraft, all Narrowbodies. As seen in the chart below: the Boeing 737-800 is the most popular aircraft in both markets, primarily used for short to medium-range passenger flights. Not surprisingly, its direct competitor the Airbus A321 is also balanced between both countries. These two aircraft are the only two used by both “Flying Giants”.

China fleet technology & utilisation

When we delve more into the differences in the aircraft used based on the number of flights operated by above identified top Chinese airlines, we noticed the Airbus popularity. Among top aircraft utilised by the Chinese operators is the Narrowbody twin engines A320 family used my all four airlines (Air China, China Southern, China Eastern and Shenzhen Airlines), as well as Boeing 738 operated by all five airlines. Among the least used aircraft types we can find Widebody aircraft like B747, medium to short range twin jets like B38M and A318.

Looking at the graph, the size of the bubble represents the ranking of the aircraft among top identified aircraft types used by Top 5 Chinese operators, meaning the smaller bubble among the least used aircraft type represents the aircraft with the least flights and vis-a-versa for the most used aircraft type. The smallest bubble represents the aircraft type with the least flights among all the most used aircraft.

China Fleet Technology

China’s transition from Old Tech to New Tech has been gradual. This is attributed to a slower return to widespread air travel following Covid-19 and trade agreements between the US and China. It is believed that Boeing retains c. 85 aircraft as inventory intended for Chinese operators. Looking at the Top 5 Chinese operators, all of them have orders for Boeing 737 MAX aircraft, yet. more recent deliveries are dominated by Airbus aircraft; Airbus also announcing a second assembly line in Tianjin this year to bolster production is perhaps another blow to Boeing in the region. It has been well documented that China has been slow to resume imports partly due to political tensions with the US impacting Boeing aircraft deliveries into Chinese operators. The reactivating of already delivered 737 MAX aircraft in China has proved successful in 2023, however. A clear resumption of Boeing aircraft imports should mean some replenishment of Old Tech aircraft. The table below details the share of Old Tech aircraft versus New Tech aircraft 12 months apart in China.

China Top 5 Operators by Old Tech vs New Tech

	Aug-22		Aug-23
Operator	Old Tech Share	New Tech Share	Old Tech Share	New Tech Share
Air China	73%	27%	71%	29%
China Eastern Airlines	84%	16%	80%	20%
China Southern Airlines	74%	26%	73%	27%
Hainan Airlines	76%	24%	77%	23%
Shenzhen Airlines	84%	16%	83%	17%
Source: AviationValues (September 2023)

 

US fleet technology & utilisation

On the other side, the most used aircraft type among the Top 5 American airlines is a mix of narrowbody aircraft of Airbus and Boeing family serving regional and international routes. Over the past year, we notice a decrease in usage of A330 and A350 family as well as long range Boeing Dreamliner and Embraer.

Looking at the graph, the size of the bubble represents the ranking of the aircraft among top identified aircraft types used by Top 5 American operators, meaning the smaller bubble among the least used aircraft type represents the aircraft with the least flights and vis-a-versa for the most used aircraft type, the smallest bubble represents the aircraft type with the least flights among the all most used aircraft.

US Fleet Technology

With some exceptions, legacy US airlines such as American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, and United Airlines operate aircraft for the typical economic life of the plane. It is therefore unsurprising to see the share of Old Tech aircraft outweighing New Tech. Further, the transition from Old to New Tech aircraft is still in its onset, particularly in the Narrowbody market, and New Tech engine issues, supply chain delays, and consequent production delays, are extending the life of Old Tech aircraft. Additional coverage of US legacy carriers’ fleet trends, both now and historically, is analysed in AviationValues’ AV Analysis Week 32 “Delta Air Lines” for an optimised review of a US legacy carrier.

JetBlue Airways’ fleet transition has been gradual. In 2022 and 2023, it has had a mix of Airbus A220 and A321neo deliveries, totalling 11 and 8 respectively. Aircraft exits are attributed to Embraer E190s, and this will continue.

Observing the table below, the most noteworthy change 2022 versus 2023 year to date is that of Southwest Airlines, owing to its ramp up of Boeing 737 MAX 8 deliveries, and exits of oldest Boeing 737-700s. In 2023, AviationValues counts 72 737 MAX 8 aircraft delivered to Southwest Airlines, the latest of which was MSN 42685, on 30 September. This will be a continuing fleet trend for Southwest given its remaining backlog, as has already been alluded to.

US Top 5 Operators by Old Tech vs New Tech

	Aug-22		Aug-23
Operator	Old Tech Share	New Tech Share	Old Tech Share	New Tech Share
American Airlines	84%	16%	81%	19%
Delta Air Lines	89%	11%	84%	16%
JetBlue Airways	88%	12%	84%	16%
Southwest Airlines	87%	13%	76%	24%
United Airlines	86%	14%	78%	22%
Source: AviationValues (September 2023)

 

US spotlight: Southwest Airlines

The chart below details the Narrowbody fleet growth and Market Value change from August 2022 to August 2023 for US low cost operator, Southwest Airlines. The chart reveals that Southwest is inducting 737 MAX 8 aircraft at a significant rate, and these brand new aircraft detail a significant increase in value, attributed to new delivery transaction values. As at October 2023, AviationValues expects new delivery 737 MAX 8 Market Values of c. USD 52m.

These 737 MAX 8 aircraft are displacing Southwest’s existing fleet of 737-700s which were delivered between 1997 and 2011. The majority of 737-700 exits have been for oldest vintages in the fleet; an expected trend. Upon certification of the 737 MAX 7, these aircraft will also replace 737-700s. Although if there are delays to the expected service entry of 2024 for the MAX 7, Southwest will continue to take 737 MAX 8s in its place to maintain its aircraft replacement and growth plan.

As for 737-800s, this is still a young fleet at the airline having delivered between 2012 and 2018. Early retirements are not expected nor is there an exit strategy. As for value performance, fixed age Market Values have been to the upside for the period August 2022 to August 2023, corroborated by AviationValues AV Analysis Week 33 “Are the 737-800s Still in the Game” which examines a five year old 737-800, equivalent to the last of Southwest Airlines’ 737-800 aircraft received. Since this publication, there is enough anecdotal evidence to suggest this upward Market Value trend could continue.

China spotlight: Hainan Airlines

Looking again at China, the following charts detail the Narrowbody and Widebody fleet growth and Market Value change from August 2022 to August 2023 for Chinese operator Hainan Airlines. Specific to Hainan Airlines, and not subsidiaries, there have been no aircraft deliveries since 2019. Instead, there have been aircraft exits. The most surprising exit was that of its Airbus A350s, with end users such as Iberia, Fiji Airways, and South African Airways.

As recently as late August, two ex-Hainan Airlines A350-900s, Manufacturer Serial Number (MSN) 251 and 260, transacted between EMP Trading (seller) and KGAL (buyer). The aircraft will be serviced and managed by GOAL Aircraft Leasing on lease to Fiji Airways. The equivalent Market Value at sale close, relevant to the transaction price of the aircraft, was USD 112m per aircraft.

Narrowbody exits have not been prevalent in 2023. There were some lease returns of 737-800s in 2020 and 2022, with a subsidiary transfer in 2023. Given recent restructuring efforts which saw Liaoning Fangda Group Industrial take a controlling share of Hainan Airlines, a period of fleet stability appears evident.

This is supported in the charts by limited fleet change, and gradually decreasing overall fleet Market Value totals.

Liaoning Fangda Group Industrial has set a long term strategy to grow Hainan Airlines and subsidiary fleets to 1,200 to 1,300 aircraft by 2035, which includes a medium term strategy of 1,000 operational aircraft by 2029. These fleet growth ambitions corroborate both Airbus and Boeing’s long term fleet size projections for the region. If this reported strategy is accurate, a large order will be due by Hainan Airlines and its subsidiaries.

 

Findings & Conclusions

Summarising the direct data comparison of both the Top 5 US and Chinese aircraft across different parameters, we identify some clear trends and future considerations:

• Chinese international flight activity has seen a significant rebound in 2023 after stringent measures, reaching over 41,000 flights in July, a fourfold increase compared to the previous year. China’s domestic flight sector faced initial challenges but increased by 53% after the removal of internal restrictions.
• The US maintained stable international flight density, with over 121,100 flights per month, while domestic flight operations remained relatively stable, surpassing 600,000 flights per month by March 2023.
• Both countries focused on reestablishing or strengthening domestic and regional connections in their route landscape
  • China primarily added new domestic and regional routes, with some international routes to key destinations like Dubai, Moscow, and London.
  • The US added regional connections to Montreal, Italy, Japan, the Caribbean, and Peru and visibly strengthened domestic connectivity.
• Chinese airlines are not receiving new delivery Boeing aircraft
  • This is impacting the number new aircraft entering the respective airline fleets.
  • Consequently, the total fleet Market Value has not seen the rise of the US airline counterparts.
  • Boeing has remarketed aircraft originally intended for Chinese operators
• For all the airline fleets covered, Old Tech aircraft comprise a large share of young aircraft.
  • These aircraft have not reached retirement age. For example, Southwest Airlines’ Boeing 737-800 fleet.
  • The transition from New Tech from Old Tech is still in its onset, and there have been numerous entry into service challenges prolonging the life of certain Old Tech aircraft in operator fleets.
  • New Tech fleet additions are supporting growth over immediate replacement.
• Following the grounding of the 737 MAX in 2019 and Covid-9, some US operators have had an influx of 737 MAX 8 and MAX 9 aircraft.
  • This will continue but production barriers could exist for those operators’ awaiting certification of MAX 10 and MAX 7 aircraft.
  • Boeing has recently employed a new President for its China business to strengthen relations.
• Airbus is expanding in China with a second Tianjin production line.
  • Due to be active in late 2025.
  • What will be the impact for Boeing and does the Comac C919 have an increased role to play alongside Airbus at the expense of Boeing in China?

Whilst new deliveries of New Tech aircraft have been substantial, certain events, technical fleet challenges, and the age of the existing Old Tech fleet, have meant a slower transition. In an inflationary environment pushing up the cost of new delivery aircraft, technical challenges with them have caused increased demand, and ultimately, pricing for the Old Tech equivalents. In the US, could this be exacerbated should further delays be encountered for Boeing 737 MAX 7 and MAX 10 aircraft programmes? In China, can growth be sustained with existing orderbooks and constrained future delivery slots out to the end of the decade given a Boeing hiatus?

What is clear-air turbulence?

Sometimes referred to as “air pockets”, clear-air turbulence forms where two layers of air meet while moving at different speeds. The movement of air between these masses causes erratic wind patterns. Typically, turbulence can be seen in cloud patterns, giving pilots and their onboard instrumentation the ability to detect these pockets of erratic air and adjust their course for a smoother flight. Unlike that turbulence that forms with clouds, clear-air turbulence remains invisible to onboard instruments and visible sight, making it a hidden danger during flights.

Why does clear-air turbulence matter?

Clear-air turbulence is common around the Jet Stream, so flights are more effected as they transit the jet stream and encounter these invisible wind patterns. It also can occur at lower altitudes around rough terrain and mountains.

Researchers found a 55 percent increase in severe turbulence from 1979 to 2020, suggesting that climate change is playing a role. Papers from Nature and Advances in Atmospheric Sciences have looked at the effects of increasingly warm air masses turbulent air patterns between the upper and lower atmosphere. This means that unfortunately for uneasy fliers, turbulence is likely to continue increasing.

A 2023 paper cites that the cost of turbulence was estimated to be around $200 million annually in the US alone in 2003. That’s primarily from increased strain to the airframe, causing fatigue and damage requiring repairs and lost productivity. As well, injuries suffered by passengers and crew requiring costly hospital visits and compensation. This year alone, severe turbulence has been in the news for causing injuries worldwide.

Is clear-air turbulence actually invisible?

To pilots and their current onboard instruments, yes. While it isn’t visible to on-board radar and satellite imagery, it is detectable through Spire’s radio occultation data that can detect small changes in wind patterns, as Spire’s data shows below. As we advance our understanding and technology, addressing this hidden threat becomes increasingly essential for safer – and more pleasant – air travel.

Clear-Air turbulence around Munich, Germany

Interact with the map to see the relative Clear-Air Turbulence (rcat) measurement at different altitudes.

GAIA’s multi-dataset approach to emissions inventory

The authors utilize global ADS-B telemetry that was collected by Spire Aviation using terrestrial and satellite receivers and combined it with historical weather data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) and engine emissions data from the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) to develop a global aviation emissions inventory. The dataset, named as the Global Aviation emissions inventory based on ADS-B (GAIA), contains 103.7 million unique flight trajectories between 2019 and 2021, the majority of which are jet aircraft flights.

Decoding the airborne pollutants of 2019

The study revealed that in 2019, over 40.2 million flights covered 61 billion kilometers. The majority of flight distance (92%) occurred in the Northern Hemisphere, with 63% in the northern mid-latitudes. Europe, the USA, and East Asia had the highest air traffic densities, accounting for 55% of the global annual flight distance. The North Atlantic and North Pacific flight corridors represented 4.9% and 3.9% of the annual distance traveled, respectively, while 52% of the globe had low air traffic density.

Consequently, this resulted in emissions of CO₂, NO_X, non-volatile particulate matter (nvPM) mass, and number emissions reaching 893 million metric tons, 4.49 million metric tons, 21.4 thousand metric tons, and 2.8×10²⁶ respectively.

In terms of fuel consumption, global aviation burned 282 million metric tons of fuel in 2019, with the Northern Hemisphere accounting for about 92%. The US, Europe, and East Asia drained 47% of the annual fuel consumption. The regional distribution of fuel consumption differed from the air traffic density, with the US having a lower proportion of fuel consumption relative to its share of aviation activity. The North Atlantic and North Pacific flight corridors utilized more fuel than necessary for the distance flown, primarily due to the use of larger wide-body aircraft for long-haul transoceanic flights. Fuel consumption per flight distance flown in China was higher than in the US and Europe, likely due to airspace structure and fleet composition differences.

The impact of Covid-19 on air traffic density

Global air traffic activity experienced significant reductions during the pandemic, with the total flight distance traveled reaching a minimum in April 2020 (-76% globally relative to April 2019). The annual fuel consumption and CO2 emissions in 2020 and 2021 were lower than in 2019 (43% and 31% lower), resulting in lower mean distance-specific fuel consumption. Factors contributing to the lower fuel consumption rate included a lower passenger load capacity, increased short-haul flights, and increased usage of private jets.

The data also revealed significant regional variability. The highest year-on-year reduction in flight distance traveled was observed in the North Atlantic (-61%), Southeast Asia (-61%), and Europe (-59%), regions, which have a higher proportion of international flights, followed by Africa and the Middle East (-57%), Latin America (-52%), the North Pacific (-33%), the US (-31%), and East Asia (-24%). East China was the only region that recorded air traffic growth in 2020 compared to 2019 (+21%).

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The global air traffic density in (a) 2019; and (b) April-2020, where air traffic activity was at a minimum due to the COVID-19 pandemic:
 

 
Teoh, R., Engberg, Z., Shapiro, M., Dray, L., and Stettler, M.: A high-resolution Global Aviation emissions Inventory based on ADS-B (GAIA) for 2019–2021, EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-724, 2023.

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Navigating sustainability: flight paths and carbon footprints

The study findings shed light on the disparities in emissions contribution between short-haul and long-haul flights. Despite constituting the majority of flights at 83%, short-haul flights with flight times < 3 h had a relatively lower impact, accounting for only 35% of CO2 emissions in 2019. In contrast, long-haul flights with flight times > 6 h, comprising a mere 5% of total flights, were responsible for a substantial 43% of CO2 emissions and 49% of NOX emissions. These emissions differentials were primarily attributed to the larger size of aircraft and the higher fuel mass fraction associated with long-haul flights.

When examining the mean lateral route inefficiency, the study estimated that the actual flight distance flown are on average, 5% greater than the shortest distance between the origin-destination airport, although this varied by region and flight distance. The variability in lateral inefficiency was likely influenced by air traffic corridors and airspace restrictions.

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The lateral and vertical trajectory that is flown by flights between London Heathrow Airport (LHR) and Singapore Changi Airport (SIN) between 2019 and 2021:
 

 
Teoh, R., Engberg, Z., Shapiro, M., Dray, L., and Stettler, M.: A high-resolution Global Aviation emissions Inventory based on ADS-B (GAIA) for 2019–2021, EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-724, 2023.

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A detailed examination of a specific route highlighted the significant variability in flight trajectory, fuel consumption, and emissions. Factors such as aircraft type, passenger load factor, wind conditions, and engine settings played crucial roles in shaping these variations. Understanding these complexities is vital for understanding the spatiotemporal distribution of aviation emissions, which should lead to a more accurate quantification of the non-CO₂ impacts caused by global aviation activity.

Learn how space-based data can help address sustainability challenges

Summer jet setters: discovering the most popular USA destinations of the season

Alaska emerges as the top summer destination in the United States, witnessing a significant increase in air travel. With over 28,790 flights recorded, the number of flights to Alaska during the busy sunny season increases up to 2.3 times compared to the lowest month of January, making it a prime market for airlines and travel agencies. July stands out as the busiest month, attracting visitors eager to explore the state’s breathtaking natural beauty and unique wildlife experiences.

 

In the second place, Maine shines as a sought-after summer escape, witnessing a 1.9 times surge in flights during the sun-soaked season, attracting a wave of visitors eager to explore its coastal towns and pristine wilderness. Over 34,110 flights cater to this destination, with July emerging as a prime time to explore Maine and soak in the picturesque views.

 

Completing the summer favorites is Montana, a hidden gem that beckons adventurers with over 44,670 flights transporting eager travelers to its vast wonders. Montana’s enchanting landscapes and outdoor adventures spike the flight density 1,7 times higher during the summer months compared to the low season, with a considerable number of travelers exploring this part of the USA in July.

 

Adventures await: unlocking the secrets of Alaska’s summer air travel trends

In the realm of summer air travel to Alaska, understanding the preferred departure points becomes crucial for airlines, travelers, and industry stakeholders alike. Through an insightful analysis of air travel patterns, we uncovered the key departure points that fuel the journey to the Last Frontier.

Our findings reveal that the Western American states (Washington, Illinois, and Minnesota) alongside Colorado, California, and Texas, emerge as the most seasonable departure points to Alaska. These regions serve as convenient launching pads for eager travelers seeking the thrill of Alaska’s majestic landscapes and unique experiences.

 

As the seasons shift, so do the arrival airports frequented by adventurers venturing to the land of wilderness and wonders. During the summer months, Seattle-Tacoma (18,030+), Minneapolis-Saint Paul (1,480+), O’Hare (1,470+), Denver (1,100+), and San Francisco (400+) airports take the spotlight as go-to arrival points for those yearning for a relaxing summer adventure in Alaska.

 

Canada’s summer sojourns: exploring the top destinations and flight surges

Canada’s summer air travel landscape unveils a tapestry of enchanting destinations and soaring flight numbers, presenting lucrative opportunities for businesses and captivating experiences for travelers.

Newfoundland and Labrador claim the crown as the busiest seasonal summer destination, attracting over 13,100 flights that surged a remarkable 4.3 times higher compared to the low season of February. August is the prime month to explore this destination.

 

Following closely, Nova Scotia entices adventurers with over 31,910 flights, experiencing a remarkable 3.5 times increase during the summer compared to the low season. With August emerging as the busiest month, travelers flock to Nova Scotia to immerse themselves in its coastal allure.

 

Completing the top three, Ontario commands attention with an impressive count of over 303,130 flights, with August being the preferred month for travelers to explore this diverse province. The flight density during the summer months represents a substantial 2.2 times increase compared to the low season in February.

 

Navigating summer air travel trends in picturesque Nova Scotia

Canadian provinces such as Ontario, Newfoundland and Labrador, Quebec, and Alberta, alongside the UK, serve as the most seasonable departure points to Nova Scotia. These regions act as springboards for eager travelers seeking the charm of Nova Scotia’s coastal beauty and cultural delights.

 

As the seasons transition, so do the arrival airports frequented by eager travelers heading to Nova Scotia. During the summer months, Toronto (8,810+), Montreal-Trudeau (4,850+), Ottawa Macdonald-Cartier (4,350+), St. John’s (4,220+), Calgary (1,670+), Billy Bishop Toronto (1,480+), John C. Munro Hamilton (760+), and Gander and Edmonton (both with 630+ flights) airports emerge as the go-to arrival points for those seeking a serene summer adventure in Nova Scotia.

 

These trends provide valuable insights for businesses in the aviation and tourism industries, allowing them to cater to the demands and preferences of travelers heading to these sought-after American and Canadian destinations. By understanding and capitalizing on these trends, companies can create tailored experiences, forge strategic partnerships, and seize the immense potential of the bustling summer travel season, creating unforgettable experiences and driving growth in this thriving market.

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Unprecedented passenger growth in India

Since the beginning of this year, we have witnessed a remarkable surge in domestic Indian passenger traffic. In April 2023 alone, over 13,500 domestic flights took off across the country, with an additional 5,000 flights catering to international destinations. The airports in Delhi and Mumbai emerged as the top choices for both domestic and international routes. Among domestic destinations, Delhi, Mumbai, and Bengaluru lead the pack, while Dubai (UAE) and Kathmandu (Nepal) have become popular international destinations for Indian travelers.

Indian air cargo’s steady progress

While passenger numbers have soared, the recovery of Indian air cargo has been relatively slower. However, there are positive signs indicating a gradual bounce back. International air cargo volumes have shown slight growth, with shipments primarily taking place between Indian airports and Hong Kong, Vietnam, and Nepal. Domestically, Delhi, Mumbai, and Bengaluru remain central hubs for air cargo transportation. As the aviation industry continues to recover, we can anticipate a resurgence in both domestic and international air cargo.

The fleet evolution of Indian airlines (2020-2023)

While a majority of Indian airlines witnessed a decrease in their fleet numbers over the last three years, two notable exceptions have defied the trend. IndiGo and Vistara have emerged as the frontrunners, displaying positive growth in their fleets.

IndiGo is also leading the way when it comes to the number of aircraft operated by each of the analyzed Indian airlines. The latter has the largest fleet in India with a 19% aircraft increase in the last three years. While Air India and Go First maintained a steady fleet size, with Air India operating approximately 123 aircraft and Go First soaring with around 57 planes until its bankruptcy in early 2023, it is SpiceJet that took a different course. SpiceJet was the only Indian carrier that decided to trim its fleet, witnessing a reduction of 38% in the number of aircraft during the analyzed period.

Looking more closely at the aircraft type utilized by different Indian carriers, we observed that the Airbus A320 family emerged as the undisputed favorite. Renowned for its efficiency and reliability, this aircraft type has become the go-to choice for carriers operating in India. In contrast, the Boeing 737 fleet decreased over the past three years, reflecting the ever-evolving market dynamics and the strategic decisions made by airlines. Notably, the fleet size of the B747 Q400 has experienced a decline, making way for the rise of ATRs and A320s as the preferred alternatives.

Decoding the aircraft preferences: a closer look at Indian carriers’ fleet composition

With a fleet assortment of both single-aisle and wide-body aircraft types, Air India boasts the most diverse fleet among all Indian carriers. The A320-200N and B787-8 emerge as the most widely operated aircraft within their fleet, ensuring flexibility and catering to varied travel requirements.

Meanwhile, IndiGo established itself as one of the world’s largest A320 fleet operators. Their fleet of ATR aircraft has experienced remarkable expansion over the past three years. This expansion echoes their commitment to regional connectivity and expanding operations.

 

When it comes to the diverse array of aircraft types across Indian airlines, Vistara sets itself apart by being the sole Indian carrier operating the B787-9, an aircraft known for its advanced features and passenger comfort. However, the most widely utilized aircraft type in Vistara’s fleet is the A320-200N, a workhorse that combines efficiency and reliability to cater to the airline’s extensive domestic and international routes.

Interestingly, SpiceJet stands out as the only top airline in India that does not include the A320 aircraft in its fleet. Their fleet mainly consists of B737 and Q400 aircraft. While the B737s offer versatility for both short and medium-haul routes, the Q400s excel in connecting smaller airports and regional destinations.

India’s aviation industry sets the stage for economic prosperity

The domestic air connectivity in India is rapidly expanding and contributing to establishing Indian prominence on the global stage. The strong rebound of flights signifies the industry’s resilience, adaptability, and capacity to recover from challenges. This rebound is important as it contributes to India’s position in the global aviation landscape, drives economic growth, enhances connectivity, facilitates business and trade, fuels technological advancements, and fosters collaboration.

Croatia

Croatia emerges as a formidable contender, securing the second spot with over 55,150 international flights. As the summer months approach, the number of flights more than doubles, transforming this gem of the Adriatic into a bustling tourist destination. July reigns supreme as the busiest month to travel to Croatia.
 

Albania

In a surprising twist, Albania takes place as Europe’s third most seasonable summer destination. With more than 25,530 international flights, the flight density during the summer months soars fivefold compared to the quieter seasons. The hidden gem is quickly unveiling itself to the growing number of travelers, the majority of whom decide to explore it during July.
 

Mapping the Greek air: Analyzing the most seasonal and high traffic journeys of the summer

As summer approaches, the Scandinavian countries alongside Czechia lead the way in opening their routes to eager flyers heading to Greece, with Rhodes, Corfu, and Kos among the top three destinations. But looking beyond the seasonal connections, which countries generate the highest inbound air traffic to this Mediterranean paradise? The UK, Germany, Italy, France, the Netherlands, and Poland emerged as the frontrunners, sending a significant number of travelers to experience Greece’s wonders.
 

As the seasons change, so do the arrival airports frequented by eager travelers heading to Greece. During the summer months, Rhodes emerges as the top choice with over 30,930 travelers, followed by Corfu (21,090+), Kos (15,750+), Kasteli (11,110+), Santorini (10,600+), and Zakynthos (8690+) as the go-to arrival points for an unforgettable Greek adventure. Among the most seasonable connections are Rhodes to Israel and the UK, Corfu to the UK, and Chania to Denmark.
 

Athens is taking center stage as the Greek airport, facilitating seamless connections between the mainland and its diverse array of islands and international hubs. With over 96,420 arrivals, Athens solidifies its position as the essential gateway for travelers and generates the highest air traffic during the summer. It is no surprise that all the highest traffic routes are executed from Athens to neighboring countries like Larnaca or international connecting hubs like Paris, Heathrow, Rome, and Istanbul.

The second Greek arrival airport generating the highest traffic is Rhodes (30,930+), followed by Thessaloniki (26,760+), Heraklion (21,820+), Corfu (21,090+), Kos (15,750+), and Chania (15,580+).

Unlocking European summer travel patterns: A glimpse into Greek airport choices

Our analysis of the data also revealed intriguing airport preferences among European countries. German and Scandinavian travelers can’t seem to get enough of the iconic beauty of Crete, while Brits have a soft spot for the charm of Corfu. Most Europeans, on the other hand, gravitate towards the buzzing capital of Athens and the vibrant vibes of Rhodes. These favorite Greek airports highlight the diverse tastes and preferences of European travelers.

Favorite Greek airports by countries:

Among the most seasonable departure airports connecting to the preferred islands are Birmingham, Helsinki, Bristol, Oslo, and Billund, meaning they increase their connections or start operating in Greece during the summer. Looking at the European airports bringing in the most traffic, we can find among the top 5 the traditional hubs like Gatwick, Munich, Amsterdam, Manchester, and Paris.
 

Based on space-based insights like these travelers, airlines and the tourism industry can optimize their schedules, cater to peak demand, and enhance the overall travel experience, while travelers gain valuable insights for planning their Greek escapades. It’s all about transforming data into remarkable travel experiences!

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Use of space-based ADS-B data to reconstruct flight trajectories

To truly understand the correlation between the forecasted upper wind and CO2 emissions, the first step was to collect flight traffic data from flights between the US and Europe for the month of March over three consecutive years: 2020, 2021, and 2022. By analyzing this data, the team was able to capture east and west-bound flights over the Atlantic Ocean and reconstruct their complete flight trajectories.

This intricate process entailed collecting data points from all aircraft traversing the Atlantic Ocean, utilizing Spire satellites to accurately connect and construct the complete flight paths. The significance of space-based ADS-B data is particularly emphasized in remote areas like oceans, where traditional terrestrial data collection methods are not feasible.

The collected flight routes were incorporated into a reconstruction algorithm alongside other flight datasets to extend the detected flight trajectories over the entire remote area of the Atlantic Ocean.

However, to obtain complete airport-to-airport flight trajectories, the terrestrial ADS-B dataset from OpenSky was also incorporated into the algorithm. The result was a comprehensive map of both east and westbound flights between the US and Europe, incorporating 21,487 flight trajectories, out of which 51% were eastbound flight paths and 49% westbound flight paths, with filtering out incomplete trajectories.

The role of forecasted upper wind in the carbon emission analysis

Once the flight paths were established, the research team was able to calculate the carbon emissions of each flight by using the OpenAP model. OpenAP is a fully open-source aircraft performance and emission model, which was created by Dr. Junzi Sun in 2019 and being quickly adopted in aviation research.

In the analysis, carbon emissions were compared based on ground speed broadcast in space-based ADS-B messages and approximated airspeed, which took into account the upper wind component from Spire Weather. The inclusion of wind in the calculations is crucial due to the notable presence of strong and persistent westerly winds, known as the Jet Stream, in the North Atlantic. The Jet Stream is a high-altitude wind that can exceed speeds of 200 miles per hour, flowing from west to east across the Atlantic Ocean. While it can provide a tailwind for eastward flights, it can also cause turbulence and increase flight times due to headwinds for westward flights.

In addition to these weather characteristics, flights operating over the North Atlantic must also contend with the effects of the Gulf Stream, a warm ocean current that flows from the Gulf of Mexico to the North Atlantic. The Gulf Stream can create significant temperature and humidity gradients, leading to the formation of thunderstorms and other weather phenomena.

The analysis considered various data points in addition to forecasted upper wind conditions, including flight routes, aircraft types, altitude, and airspeed. To calculate emissions, the take-off masses of the aircraft were assumed to be approximately 85% of the maximum take-off weight. Here is an example of the dataset utilized to calculate carbon emissions for an eastbound flight.

Eastbound flight data:

Departure airport:	New York airport (KJFK)
Arrival Airport:	Madrid airport (LEMD)
Start:	2020-03-01 22:13:45
End:	2020-03-02 03:54:45
Duration:	5h 41min
Operating aircraft:	Airbus 330-302
Sampling rate:	15 seconds

The map (first picture) represents the horizontal flight route taken by the aircraft flying over the North Atlantic Ocean. The second picture shows the detailed altitude flight profile over time, with the Y-axis representing barometric altitude in feet. And the last graph provides a visual representation of the estimated flight CO2 emissions in relation to time. The red line shows the CO2 emissions without considering the forecasted wind, while the green line displays the estimated CO2 emissions considering the forecasted wind along the flight trajectory.

But does the upper wind have the same effect on the westbound flight as well? When analyzing its impact on the chosen westbound flight example, we used the below flight data.

Westbound flight data:

Departure airport:	New York airport (KJFK)
Arrival Airport:	Madrid airport (LEMD)
Start:	2020-03-01 12:00:00
End:	2020-03-02 19:48:00
Duration:	7h 48min
Operating aircraft:	Airbus 330-302
Sampling rate:	15 seconds
Remark:	Trajectory data outside of coverage is extrapolated

The map on the first picture provides a visual representation of the horizontal flight route by chosen aircraft over the North Atlantic Ocean. The second picture shows a detailed altitude flight profile over time, with the Y-axis representing barometric altitude given in feet. The third visualization, a graph, displays the estimated CO2 emissions of the flight over time. The red line on the graph represents the CO2 emissions without considering the forecasted wind, while the green line displays the estimated CO2 emissions considering the forecasted wind along the flight trajectory.

Reducing the uncertainty in carbon emissions estimations by combining Spire aviation and weather data

Our analysis of space-based and terrestrial ADS-B data combined with Spire Weather data revealed that incorporating the upper wind component into CO2 emissions estimation calculation models could reduce the uncertainty in emissions estimation. Looking more closely at the eastward flights, applying the forecasted wind component into the CO2 emissions estimation model shows less or similar carbon emissions due to tailwind occurrence, contributing to shorter flight time and lower fuel consumption. On the other hand, westward flights tend to generate higher values of carbon emissions as a result of a strong headwind from the North Atlantic jetstream.

Comparing the C02 estimation for relatively the same number of east and westbound flights showed that they are not balancing each other out. Instead, we can see a significant increase in estimated CO2 emissions when the upper wind data forecast is taken into consideration.

Aggregated percentages of CO2 emissions differences per year per direction

Year	Direction	CO2 difference (%)
2020	eastbound	-0.44%
2020	westbound	20.69%
2021	eastbound	6.17%
2021	westbound	17.26%
2022	eastbound	10.11%
2022	westbound	22.87%
2020	any	10.49%
2021	any	11.71%
2022	any	16.62%

Aggregated percentages of CO2 emissions differences per year per direction, taking into account the wind speed

Year	Flow	Wind	co2 diff %
2020	eastbound	x<50	-2.31%
2020	eastbound	50<x<100	-9.13%
2020	eastbound	100<x<150	-1.97%
2020	eastbound	150<x<200	14.00%
2020	eastbound	200<x<250	23.57%
2020	eastbound	x>250	NaN
2020	westbound	x<50	3.07%
2020	westbound	50<x<100	15.59%
2020	westbound	100<x<150	28.36%
2020	westbound	150<x<200	29.75%
2020	westbound	200<x<250	26.38%
2020	westbound	x>250	NaN
2021	eastbound	x<50	-1.97%
2021	eastbound	50<x<100	-2.71%
2021	eastbound	100<x<150	1.38%
2021	eastbound	150<x<200	14.97%
2021	eastbound	200<x<250	30.78%
2021	eastbound	x>250	30.14%
2021	westbound	x<50	3.61%
2021	westbound	50<x<100	13.75%
2021	westbound	100<x<150	20.50%
2021	westbound	150<x<200	27.04%
2021	westbound	200<x<250	23.47%
2021	westbound	x>250	23.53%
2022	eastbound	x<50	0.53%
2022	eastbound	50<x<100	-2.92%
2022	eastbound	100<x<150	-1.16%
2022	eastbound	150<x<200	4.49%
2022	eastbound	200<x<250	19.40%
2022	eastbound	x>250	25.44%
2022	westbound	x<50	2.57%
2022	westbound	50<x<100	17.79%
2022	westbound	100<x<150	23.57%
2022	westbound	150<x<200	27.68%
2022	westbound	200<x<250	27.06%
2022	westbound	x>250	25.59%

The aggregated CO2 emissions estimation difference for all flight trajectories analyzed in this study reveal the 5,96% per year variation in eastbound and 20,70% in westbound flights when considering the upper wind component, contributing to 13,46% overall estimation difference on the level of the study.

Average trip emissions each year, with and without considering wind in estimation

CO2 emissions from the selected set of flights between 2020 and 2022, considering wind (based on the flights in the selected dataset)

Clear correlation between wind and CO2 flight emissions

The numbers and graphs provided show the impact that wind speed can have on the carbon emissions of flights, denoting a clear correlation between stronger wind and higher CO2 emissions. The graphic below represents this relationship visually from March 2022. The flights over the North Atlantic Ocean are separated by the eastbound and westbound flow, showing the difference in the CO2 estimations when the wind component is taken in to the account versus when it is not considered.

Conclusion

The results of this collaborative study between TU Delft and Spire emphasize the importance of assessing air traffic emissions beyond just the distance traveled, aircraft’s performance characteristics and load factor. By examining a comprehensive dataset of transatlantic flights using Dr. Junzi Sun’s OpenAP model from TU Delft, the analysis revealed that incorporating the upper wind component into carbon emission estimation models improves the accuracy of estimating flight emissions. Moreover, when Spire’s wind data was combined with their space-based ADS-B data, a significant increase in emissions was observed.

The findings highlighted the significance of assessing aviation emissions using space-based ADS-B data and considering weather conditions, including wind speed and direction, and it also demonstrated the potential for accurate emission assessment at the flight level. Future CO2 emissions estimation models will have to take into account the influence of the weather conditions such as wind speed and direction but also temperature and humidity during flights. To achieve a more sustainable aviation future and reduce the industry’s carbon footprint, it is imperative for the aviation sector to account for weather patterns’ impact on flight emissions when formulating reduction strategies.

What is a single-aisle commercial plane and what differentiates it from other commercial planes?

A single-aisle commercial plane is a type of aircraft designed with a narrow fuselage, containing a single aisle running through the middle of the cabin, separating the rows of seats. These planes typically have two engines and are used for short to medium-haul flights, with seating capacities ranging from 100 to 240 passengers.

What differentiates single-aisle commercial planes from others is their size and purpose. Single-aisle planes are smaller and narrower than wide-body aircraft, which typically have multiple aisles and are used for longer-haul flights. Single-aisle planes are also designed for greater efficiency, with features like more efficient engines and aerodynamics that enable them to fly shorter distances with less fuel consumption. This makes them ideal for airlines operating on high-frequency, low-cost routes, such as domestic and regional flights.

The ultimate comparison of two iconic new-generation single-aisle aircraft operations worldwide – Airbus vs. Boeing

The Airbus A320 and the Boeing 737 family are among the most recognizable single-aisle commercial planes globally. In this blog post, we take a closer look at two iconic aircraft from each family, namely the A320neo and the B737MAX, and compare their operations globally. With thousands of orders from airlines worldwide, the A320neo is one of the most popular aircraft in production. Its aerodynamic improvements, including “sharklet” wingtip devices, reduce drag and increase lift, resulting in further fuel savings. Meanwhile, the B737MAX features advanced engines and aerodynamic improvements, such as split winglets and a redesigned tail section, that improve fuel efficiency and reduce emissions.

We analyze which single-aisle aircraft secures the leading position in each segment, including the number of airlines operating them, the number of flights performed, the number of active aircraft, as well as the top 5 routes and airports for both the NEO and  MAX. Here are our main findings:

• The more widely used single-aisle aircraft is A320neo operating twice the volume of flights than the B737MAX
• A320neo operations are globally spread between two continents, Asia and Europe, while B737MAX is concentrated more in the USA and Central America (Mexico)
• Low Cost Carriers (LCCs) are the largest operators of both aircraft: Indigo for A320neo and Southwest Airlines for B737MAX
• The demand for MRO is centered around India for A320neo and Mexico for B737MAX

Download our Airbus NEO vs Boeing MAX infographic

Airport-based operational insights on single-aisle aircraft

Shifting our focus from flight operations to airport-based insights, we leverage space-based aviation data to dive into the activities of single-aisle aircraft in one of Europe’s busiest airports, Frankfurt International Airport (FRA). By analyzing the volume of A320neo flights operated at the airport, we have created a visualization of all flights arriving and departing from Frankfurt International Airport in March 2023, highlighting the busiest A320neo routes. While London and Berlin remain traditional hubs, we are excited to observe Manchester’s rapid climb up the ranks. Interestingly, Athens and Oslo made it among the top five routes, likely due to increased travel during the Easter holidays.

Moving on to B737MAX flights, we used space-based aviation data to visualize the most popular airport hubs of Southwest B737MAX flights. Data reveals that Hawaii and the routes between the islands are the most popular choices for this single-aisle aircraft, with the Los Angeles to Daniel K. Inouye International Airport in Hawaii being the most frequent.

How to quickly enhance your product features and gain access to improve your aviation data insights without relying on a development team and long data processing time?

From information-rich data on any aircraft type to competitive insights on flight operations and inbound or outbound traffic at a specific airport, space-based Flight Report data can help you gain a better understanding of top operators, airports, and destinations, as well as detailed route data and carbon emissions insights. Additionally, the data offers critical airline KPIs (OTP, cost and performance insights, fuel burn insights), fleet and aircraft utilization insights, as well as travel and cargo capacity insights.

Air traffic overview: North America

North America represents the region least impacted by the pandemic when it comes to air cargo. International and domestic air cargo flights actually increased over 2021-2022. During these two years of air traffic restrictions, we see spikes in domestic air cargo traffic at the end of 2021 and beginning of 2022, most likely connected to the holiday period and the increase in gift deliveries. This trend has continued into 2023 as well.

Much more substantial was the impact of the pandemic on passenger air travel. International passenger traffic dropped by 90% in the beginning of 2020 when travel restrictions were first imposed. Although these numbers are slowly increasing towards pre-pandemic levels, they have not yet reached them at the beginning of 2023. Domestic passenger traffic was four times lower than pre-pandemic levels, but it recovered in 2021 and has remained around the same level since then.

Air traffic overview: South America

Similar to North America, domestic air cargo traffic in South America witnessed a significant increase of 2,5 times more flights over the past two years compared to 2020. This trend continues into 2023 with domestic air cargo remaining 1,5 times higher than in 2020. A similar trend is also observed for international air cargo flights. Their number remained fairly stable during the pandemic with repeated spikes in the number of flights at the beginning of 2021 and 2022. As of today, the number of international air cargo flights has returned to the same level as in 2020.

A positive trend is also observed for domestic and international passenger flights that have returned to 2020 levels, despite their initial stark drop to almost no flights in the second half of 2020.

Air traffic overview: Europe

Europe has been one of the hardest hit regions and saw the sharpest drop in flights when the pandemic started. Compared to the buoyancy of air cargo traffic in the US, air cargo in Europe was heavily impacted by the crisis but was able to swiftly recover in the second half of 2020. We can connect the fast pace with the growing demand for medical supplies (mask, health equipment) needed to fight the pandemic. Domestic air cargo remained relatively stable in  subsequent years, but began to drop again in the beginning of 2023, while international air cargo remained at pre-pandemic levels.

Passenger air traffic in Europe also dropped drastically (95%) when internal and international travel restrictions were imposed. Although domestic and international flights began to recover during the summer months due to lower number of cases and reduced restrictions, the second wave of the pandemic caused another drop in November 2020. Europe started to recover at a more stable rate in the middle of 2021, possibly due to higher vaccination rates. Despite a 46.34% recovery rate in the number of flights compared to 2020, Europe has not yet fully recovered from the impact of Covid-19.

Air traffic overview: Asia

Besides Europe, Asia was among the hardest hit regions by the Covid-19 pandemic in terms of air passenger traffic. Both domestic and international flights saw significant drops in 2020 compared to the rest of the world, with domestic passenger flights decreasing by 75% and international flights by 90%. Although flight volumes showed gradual recovery after the initial imposed travel restrictions, numbers have not yet returned to the same level as in 2020. This slow recovery in Asia can be attributed to the prolonged travel restrictions that remained in place longer than in other regions.

However, similar to North America, air cargo traffic was not impacted by the pandemic. Domestic air cargo witnessed a considerable surge, with more than double the number of flights than in 2020 and it managed to remain above pre-pandemic levels. On the international level, air cargo performed above pre-pandemic levels, but dropped off slightly to around the same level as before the pandemic in the beginning of 2023.

Air traffic overview: Africa

Out of all the regions analyzed, Africa showed the quickest recovery in outbound flights with a year-over-year increase of 135%. However, compared to other regions, Africa also experienced the biggest decrease in both passenger and air cargo traffic during the pandemic. In the second half of 2020, domestic and international passenger flights were virtually nonexistent. As 2021 progressed, both started to pick up, with domestic flight numbers surpassing those of 2020 and international flights reaching nearly the same level.

Similarly, there was a drop in international and domestic air cargo flights. Domestic air cargo traffic had already returned to 2020 levels by the second half of 2021. There has however been a noticeable decrease in the number of flights at the beginning of 2023. International air cargo traffic never surpassed pre-pandemic levels until 2023,  when we can observe a drop in the number of flights as well.

Air traffic overview: Oceania

With an 81,26% increase in outbound flights compared to 2021 and 102,25% compared to 2020, Oceania has placed itself as the fifth most connected region in the world. International air cargo traffic in the region remained largely unaffected by the pandemic, while domestic air cargo flights saw a 50% decline in mid-2020, only to quickly recover and exceed pre-pandemic levels by 50% in the second half of the same year.

However, passenger traffic in the region fell drastically by almost 90%, ten times lower than the pre-pandemic level. Since Oceania was one of the regions that was slower to reopen international borders to foreigners, international passenger flights have been slowly recovering since 2020, with the number of flights beginning to pick up in 2022. In the beginning of this year, international flights still remained 40% below pre-pandemic levels.

On the other hand, domestic passenger flights saw a considerable increase in 2021 but only returned to pre-pandemic levels in the second half of 2022, when internal travel restrictions within the region began to ease.

2023 will continue to be a year of recovery

The Covid-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on the air traffic industry, with both air cargo and passenger flights being affected. While air cargo flights were less  impacted than passenger flights, all regions experienced a decrease in domestic and international passenger flights due to the travel restrictions imposed globally.

The recovery of air traffic has been uneven across different regions, depending on the pace with which restrictions have been eased. North and South America are currently the best-performing regions, with both air cargo and passenger flights surpassing pre-pandemic levels. However, Asia and Oceania are experiencing a slower recovery, with passenger flights starting to pick up only recently. Europe is also among the regions that has not yet fully recovered from the pandemic, despite a 46.34% increase in the number of flights compared to 2020.

Helping you take action with in-depth space-based ADS-B insights

With the help of space-based ADS-B data, aviation professionals can monitor and analyze flight volumes, better understand changes in supply/demand across route networks, analyze airspace usage to optimize operations and reduce costs, predict available capacity, and can ultimately proactively plan their strategies.

Spire Aviation’s satellite constellation collects ADS-B signals across the planet, tracking aircraft even while they cross oceans, deserts, and mountains. On average, Spire’s combination of satellite and terrestrial-based aviation data captures over 200 million positional updates and tracks over 150,000 flights per day.

With the help of reliable and quality real-time and historic aviation data, you can better understand your customer needs and develop strategies that will help you succeed in a competitive aviation market.

Discover space-based ADS-B flight and aviation insights

Unprecedented granularity in airline cost intelligence with space-based flight data

Having granular and holistic data on airline costs is crucial for airlines as it helps them to easily identify areas where they can reduce costs and improve efficiency. This can include everything from fuel consumption and maintenance expenses to fleet planning and route optimization. Accurate and detailed data also helps airlines to benchmark their performance against their competitors to stay ahead of the curve and ensure long-term profitability.

With its innovative bottom-up approach and use of only non-proprietary data, Skailark is able to deliver a never seen level of data granularity and standardization to compare carriers worldwide. Their airline economics product provides a data image of the global aviation industry, focusing on the individual airline cost items covering all flights of over 200 airlines.

The importance of space-based flight data for accurate airline cost analysis

In order to create their comprehensive bottom-up models Skailark needed accurate historic flight data to better understand which flights actually took place, meaning they could not rely on scheduled flight data. They opted for Spire aviation’s space-based approach, as opposed to the conventional ground-based alternative due to its enhanced coverage worldwide. “This is a super important feature as the oceans cover two-thirds of the earth’s surface and therefore play a huge role,” highlighted Dr. Christian Soyk, founder of Skailark. Another reason for using space-based ADS-B data was the ability to map actual aircraft based on registration information.

Skailark’s innovative cost platform for airlines

The web-based platform developed by Skailark allows airlines to benchmark themselves against competitors and dynamically model scenarios based on the strategic questions and business challenges they currently face. The airlines are able to make better-informed business decisions by discovering value potentials and deriving actions for a variety of different business scenarios and challenges.

In the North American market alone there’s an estimated value potential of $600-800 million of achievable savings for carriers flying narrow-body aircraft alone. The cost outputs available in their solution range from CASK/CASM to block hours, flight hours, seats, e-seats, and many more options.

To access different variables, users can utilize visual dashboards available within the platform.

The Road Map Dashboard (pictured above) visualizes different routes for every airline. This can be done based on one departure airport, in this example New York City, or for all airports the carrier departs from. For the specific route, the dashboard shows the different aircraft types, as well as the associated cost per available seat mile (CASM), for the airline and its competitors on that route.

And the Fleet Benchmark Dashboard enables airlines to understand how their fleet costs compare to those of their competitors. As with all dashboards in the software, everything is highly adaptable through the power of bottom-up modeling. This allows a user to have a holistic overview of the fleet landscape or deep dive into concrete scenarios like comparing a specific aircraft type for a particular route.

Modelling airline economics with space-based flight data

With its use of non-proprietary data and the outside-in perspective for every airline available in the Skailark platform, the airlines can reduce their data preparation and analysis costs enormously associated with big data processing for strategic decisions. Their airline economics product allows all users in an organization to easily access ready-to-use flight data right at their fingertips without the need for extensive skills.

By using Spire Aviation’s global flight data in format of Flight Report, Skailark is pioneering the way in delivering a never seen level of data granularity and actionable insights across carriers worldwide, helping them reduce expenses and improve their operations. This will allow the airline industry to become more sustainable, both economically as well as environmentally.

Storm Izzy halted operations at busy south-eastern American airports

The above animation depicts Spire’s weather forecast model’s prediction that a strong, comma-shaped low-pressure system would strike the southeast US. This forecast animation was for 48 hours of the composite radar and indicates the potential reach and intensity of the forecasted precipitation. It reflects that certain geographical areas in this vicinity would experience severe thunderstorms and tornadoes (as Florida actually did). As stated, some of the busiest air hubs lie within this region and include:

• Memphis, a large cargo shipping center utilized by global entities such as FedEx as a primary distribution point
• Atlanta, the busiest airport in the United States by passenger traffic
• Charlotte ranked as the fifth busiest national airport in 2022

Powerful winds hindered aircraft takeoff and landing safety

However, there was another component to Storm Izzy that compounded the negative weather effect at these large airports – the threat of sustained high winds. Spire’s weather forecast anticipated heavy thunderstorms and sustained high wind speeds. The map below denotes Spire’s 48-hour forecast with sustained wind speeds as shown. All three airports highlighted were forecast to be struck by sustained wind speeds near or greater than 40 km/h.

Alone, these wind speeds would probably not have been powerful enough to affect air traffic so notably. However, when these sustained high wind speeds converged with heavy precipitation, the forces unleashed caused the cancellation and delay of thousands of flights across the three significant airports within the region: Memphis, Atlanta, and Charlotte. In addition to the winds, the storm system created a prolonged period of Low Instrument Flight Rules (LIFR) conditions.

All airports pay critical attention to wind speed, gust, and wind direction to make optimal decisions regarding runaway configurations for inbound/outbound aircraft operations. The authorities responsible for airport functionality define specific safety thresholds for such weather parameters that permit planes to land and take off safely. For Storm Izzy, wind speeds were predicted to be high enough to obstruct airports from operating at full capacity, thus stranding thousands of travelers and delaying/canceling over 7000 flights nationally.

Uncovering the effects of severe weather on air freight operations

Understanding the consequences of extreme weather events on air cargo operations is crucial to empower businesses to be able to make data-driven decisions and develop contingency plans to alleviate the risks. To shed more light on the impact of Storm Izzy on air traffic, here’s an analysis of Spire’s aviation data that compares flights during the week of the snowstorm and the week after. The visual below depicts the impact of the storm at each of these respective airports: Memphis, Atlantis and Charlotte.

 

Apart from thousands of flights being canceled throughout the south-eastern region of America, a 3% decline in cargo flights was detected at Hartsfield–Jackson Atlanta International Airport whilst the Memphis International Airport witnessed a 6% drop in flights. Venturing towards the northern-eastern heart of the USA, Storm Izzy impacted  the Newark Liberty International Airport and Louisville Muhammad Ali International Airport yet not as negatively as its southern counterparts.

Studying the combined number of cargo and passenger flights scheduled over the same period, it’s observed that flight density declined between 6%-14% across Memphis International, Hartsfield–Jackson Atlanta International, and Charlotte Douglas International Airport. The latter has been notably hit the hardest by Storm Izzy. Charlotte is a primary air and passenger hub with over an average of 1400 arrivals and 118,000 people traveling through per day.  Storm Izzy affected more than 74 million people as it canceled thousands of flights whilst delaying hundreds of others. Similar to passenger flights, the winter storm disrupted air cargo operations as well by grounding several aircrafts and postponing delivery timelines.Leading global logistics and transport service providers experience a 30% decrease in aircraft utilization.

To truly gain an overall understanding of the impact of winter storms on air cargo daily operations, Spire’s team analyzed the top five cargo operators from Memphis, Atlanta, and Charlotte airports as well as the aircraft types commonly utilized by these operators to grasp the effect of Storm Izzy on the global air supply chain.

Major carriers experience 30% drop in air cargo flights

Let’s understand that global trade logistics is a highly complex and interconnected ecosystem. A weather-related delay at one point would require subsequent actors (ranging from trucks, warehouse, ports, railway services) to adjust their operational schedules accordingly. They would also have to ensure that they have the correct capacity to store the incoming cargo and have it available for the next stage of transport. Therefore, when a winter storm with the intensity equivalent to Storm Izzy left icy roads that were deemed dangerous to drive upon, it naturally hindered the transportation of goods from main cargo hubs that serviced international and domestic operations.  The delays  were further exacerbated by fallen trees and power lines that blocked primary road arteries and highways.

Putting the above into perspective, extensive air, road and rail services to main cities in the country that included port facilities link to the Hartsfield–Jackson Atlanta International Airport that connects cargo carriers with six different continents. During the stormy week of January 2022, three out of five operators, FedEx, Korean Air and Qatar Airways, experienced the consequences of Storm Izzy on their aircraft utilization. Korean Air and Qatar Airways operations were negatively impacted with cargo flights declining by over 30%. Considering that the Hartsfield-Jackson airport processes an average of 56,000 metric tons of cargo and mail on a monthly basis, even the most minute delays will have far-reaching effects down the air supply chain.

 

Soaring over to the Memphis and Charlotte airports, a similar trend is evident amidst cargo aviation operations at both the Memphis International Airport and at the Charlotte Douglas entity. The Memphis International Airportis the busiest cargo airport in North America and the second-busiest in the world. Home to major global logistical service providers, Storm Izzy  had a particularly strong effect on the daily operations of two of the airport’s major cargo players: UPS and Atlas Air. Both cargo carriers respectively witnessed their daily operations within that week fall by almost half of their usual capacity.

 

Meanwhile, at the Charlotte Douglas International Airport that  caters to over 30 airlines for domestic, regional and international passenger/cargo services, cargo operators felt the brunt of the winter storm with a 22% average decline in airport usage.

 

When examining the influence of weather conditions on aircraft utilization, it is also necessary to analyze the impact on particular aircraft types. When factoring that in for vital air cargo players, it’s evident that the storm effected the longest-range twin-engine aircraft B777-200 freighter the most. Its utilization fell by over 20% at both the Atlanta and Memphis International Airport. Secondly, the American three-engine wide-body airliner McDonnell Douglas MD-11F was impacted the least.

Storms do not only cause loss in airport revenue yet cause infrastructural damages worth thousands of dollars. Often, it can take days, weeks or even up to months to rebuild. Apart from impacting flight schedules and safety, hurricanes can also cause power outages that add further chaos to the existing tumultuous environment. Factor in seasonal holidays and peak travel times under extreme weather conditions, it’s imperative for air supply service providers to be equipped with global, accurate weather and aviation insights to quickly assess the impact of these disruptions on their operations and make adjustments to minimize the damage, and ensure flight schedules are optimized and goods are delivered on time.

Get customized weather data for your business Explore space-based flight data and aviation insights

No matter what the mode of transport is, it’s the “last mile” that determines the final leg of the journey of the goods in question. It’s imperative that the last mile be flexible as it influences customer experience and satisfaction.

Trade is one of the oldest professions in the world and can be traced back to ancient civilizations such as the Greeks, the Romans and the Indus. From the time when the Silk Route connected the East to the West – where spices, perfumes, silk cloth and much more were exchanged – to the present day, trade blurs national boundaries and connects people with similar interests. However, while we live in a period where access to convenience and luxury is abundant, we also have to understand the challenges that come with it.

What are the threats to supply chain security?

The COVID-19 pandemic and its adverse impact on international economies, businesses, and communities has tested the resiliency of mankind. Sprinkle in climate change and several geopolitical events and it is clear just how imperative it is for organizations to strategically plan their operations in a manner that can effectively anticipate disruptions and make necessary adjustments to keep the supply chain engine running smoothly.

1. Sociopolitical forces

International relations influence foreign, trade, and economic policies. Consider an on-going example: the current war in Ukraine. Since Russia invaded Ukraine, there has been a direct negative effect on the global food network. Ukraine is the number three exporter of wheat and number four for grain. On February 24, 2022 Ukraine’s military suspended commercial shipping at its ports to protect the local food supply, which caused prices to rise globally. Grain is one of the most essential yet underrated commodities in the world. It’s critical to ensure that grain shipment deadlines are met, but the impact of port slowdowns on global supply chains extends even further. Vessel charter agreements specify an allotted time for loading and unloading and if rain isn’t taken into account during negotiations, then it can quickly affect the charterer’s bottom line. Even vessels carrying other commodities that are stuck at anchorage while berthed cargo ships wait to discharge or load grain can mean the difference between a successful voyage and a delayed one.

It’s not just grain exports that are impacted by this particular crisis. The international community has slammed sanctions on Russia and this has exposed vulnerabilities in the global supply of oil. It’s important to note that Russia is the largest oil exporter in the world. The International Energy Agency warned that over 3 million barrels of oil per day could be cut off from global oil markets, resulting in one of the biggest supply shortfalls since the 1970s. Spire’s AIS data reflected a declining number of Russian vessels moving through the Bosphorus strait (the only warm water exit point to the Mediterranean Sea from Russia) in March 2022 as a result.

Then there’s the USA-China trade tensions to consider. In 2018-19, America increased Chinese import tariffs, primarily on metals and machinery. China counter-acted by not only adding tariffs on American goods but also lowering tariffs on imports from other nations. These moves were in stark contrast to the tariff liberalization taking place at the time across the globe. Interestingly, China’s exports to America fell by 8.5% but rose to the rest of the world by 5.5%. US exports to the Chinese economy fell by 26.3% but only increased by a modest 2.2% to other countries. With import and export flows being increased and reallocated, world trade rose by 3%.

2. Pandemic

Even as the world slowly trickles back to a semblance of pre-pandemic life, we still experience the impact of a stressed international trade network. Ships continue to remain on standby for berth space off the coast of Los Angeles. It was recently reported that approximately 101 ships are anchored 150 miles away from the shoreline as per the new regulations enforced by the busy Southern California port. A similar pattern resonates half-way across the world at the Port of Shanghai, one of the busiest hubs in the trading sphere. Due to a strict lockdown, about 300 sea-faring vessels are waiting to load or discharge. It also shut down in September 2021 due to Typhoon Chanthu – a by-product of the warming climate. Recently, a rise in COVID cases also had China place Shenzhen, its local tech hub, under lockdown. Home to the world’s third largest port that receives a majority of China’s electronic goods, Spire’s AIS data reflected a sharp fall in vessel traffic within the Yantian port due to the lockdown.

Daily count of unique vessels detected

Even when COVID-19 sent the world into its first lockdown back in early 2020 and grounded airline fleets, there became a dearth of weather data. Our satellites continued to encircle in space and perform their job, providing crucial weather data.

You’ll very well remember how in early 2020 the pandemic grounded airplanes all over the world. While air passenger traffic has suffered losses worth $200 billion up to March 2022, freight forwarders and air cargo subsectors enjoyed an upsurge in revenue. Air cargo carriers earned a 9% profit while freight forwarders gained 4%. This can be attributed to the expedited need for personal protective equipment, masks, and medicine.

3. Climate change and weather impact on the entire supply chain (air, sea, land)

It’s not just ports that can cause delays in subsequent stages of the supply network. Near the end of 2020, the Apus One embarked on its journey from China to Long Beach, California and lost almost 2,000 containers due to gale force winds and massive ocean swells. This took place 1,600 nautical miles northwest of Hawaii and incurred losses of approximately $200 million. In 2020 alone, approximately 3,000 containers fell overboard. Whilst shipping companies and their crews do their best to secure their cargo, poor weather conditions and waves may flood vessels causing damage to cargo items or even submerging them into watery depths.

In spring 2021, the world watched as the mighty 200,000 metric-ton vessel Evergreen was run aground due to strong gusts of wind and blocked the strategic Suez Canal waterway for almost a week. The grounded vessel was blocking trade worth $9.6 billion a day. Spire forecasted these weather conditions the day before the collision. Spire’s weather forecast issued at 00:00 UTC on March 22nd predicted wind gusts at speeds of 13 meters per second (30 miles per hour) and above. Knowing about these kinds of hazardous conditions by having access to accurate, reliable weather forecasts in advance could potentially mitigate such costly delays.

This WMS visualization illustrates 48 hours of wind activity in the Suez Canal region, from March 22nd (00:00 UTC) until March 24th (00:00 UTC). The speeds are measured in meters per second.

Let’s anchor sea-faring trade stories for a moment and venture on-shore.

Last November, the Canadian province of British Columbia experienced major rainfall that caused mudslides and floods and blocked strategic road routes that linked to the nation’s largest port. Canadian exports constitute one-third of the country’s GDP and journey through the Pacific Ocean to reach Asian markets. However, due to Canada’s topography, only two rail lines and a few highways have been carved through the Rocky Mountains and jagged British Columbian land to get to the Port of Vancouver. Hence, such disturbances choke up the entire supply chain. Earlier in the summer, the local town of Lytton was destroyed by wildfires that spread to the railways, disrupting the export of lumber distribution to key markets. This pushed up international prices as there was a dearth in supply and negatively impacted the American economy as it depends on over a quarter of its lumber demand to be fulfilled by its northern neighbor.

Scientists predict that the repercussions on the international supply chain caused by climate change will only amplify in the coming years. The entire supply chain infrastructure will be subject to threat from extreme weather events due to sea levels rising by two to six feet.

Hurricane Ida, one of the most intense storms to ever hit the USA, wreaked havoc across Louisiana in August 2021, leaving many without power for the next 30 days or more. It took 50 lives and cost $65 billion in damages. The question that arises is: to what extent could we have minimized these consequences if we’d known that such a powerful natural disaster is coming? Take a look at Spire’s weather data to track activity around offshore supply vessels and see how they prepared and reacted to storm warnings in the region.

The visualization above compares the tracking of strong low pressure systems in the Spire Weather and two other popular weather forecast models, compared with the actual hurricane track data from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to show the accuracy of the three models (using 6 day forecasts from all 3 models).

Below is the Spire Weather’s track and model-derived reflectivity of the hurricane.

When you club Hurricane Ida, Texas ice, British Columbia floods, American tornadoes, Australian wildfires, and typhoons at Chinese ports together – you’ll understand the magnitude of the challenge that supply chain managers are facing today.

The old adage “location, location, location” started as advice for the real estate and retail industries. Today, it is an apt reminder for businesses to capitalize on data with geospatial intelligence.

Organizations everywhere are using geospatial information to transform operations and generate new opportunities. Now businesses and governments can add continuous air traffic data to their geospatial intelligence. It is a powerful resource that helps reveal insights about the global movement of people and cargo.

“The world of geospatial data is larger than just maps,” explained Shay Har-Noy, general manager of Spire Aviation. “It includes a wide range of data that is organized by geography.”

Traditional types of geospatial data include descriptions of a location’s physical features, like land type, topography, infrastructure, weather conditions, and environmental characteristics. Demographic data or descriptions of human behavior are standard components. We are also seeing new data produced in a range of use cases that contains location information. For example, credit card transactions include location tags, as does data from connected devices and social media.

One of the first modern uses of geospatial intelligence sciences was Canada’s Department of Forestry and Rural Development efforts in the 1960s to map the country’s natural resources. Since then, its public applications have spread to touch many parts of our lives. You see it in election maps that depict voting tendencies. It reveals insights into the evolution of climate change. And even before Covid-19, geospatial intelligence helped doctors track disease outbreaks.

Commercial industries are also capitalizing on the resource. In particular, supply chain management, insurance, forestry, banking, and health services can all benefit greatly from geospatial intelligence, according to the Spatial Sciences Institute at the University of Southern California.

“Businesses everywhere are identifying relevant experiences and ways of making their products more relevant for their customers based on this location data,” said Har-Noy.

Air traffic data around cities – London and Singapore

Geospatial information has many applications partly because satellites have vastly expanded what we can study at scale. Advancing satellite technology, coupled with a range of powerful sensors, has allowed experts to gather highly detailed information about our world that would have been unattainable only a few years ago. A prime example is air traffic monitoring.

The backbone of modern aircraft tracking is Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast. ADS-B is an industry-standard technology for enhancing air safety and navigation. Aircraft use ADS-B transponders to regularly broadcast their airspeed, location, and other critical information to nearby planes, ground stations, and satellites. Satellites are a crucial part of the network because they extend coverage into areas inaccessible to ground-based surveillance technologies. While building stations across the Pacific Ocean or Himalayas would be absurd, satellites orbiting overhead can receive signals broadcast from aircraft in remote areas.

ADS-B may have been designed to aid surveillance, but it turned out to be a rich source of geospatial information packed with insights about commerce and society. Better yet, satellite coverage helps ensure the data collected worldwide is relevant, consistent, and timely.

“It can help us understand economic activity and about how people interact with their environment,” said Har-Noy. “You can look at the volume of traffic going into airports. You can look at the changes in the type of aircraft. You can also look at the number of airports in an area and their growth. There are so many questions you can answer by understanding the pulse of the world.”

Here are three examples of how flight tracking data can support businesses and governments:

Streamlining the airline industry

For airline carriers, operational efficiency is key to profitability. They want to make sure that their planes spend as much time as possible ferrying passengers or cargo through the air, not stuck on the tarmac or circling above an airport. But with operations that span the globe and change by the minute, a minor setback in one location can ripple downstream and suddenly appear as a significant delay somewhere else.

Air traffic data around airports – London Heathrow and Changi Airport

ADS-B data collected by satellites can help carriers monitor their far-flung networks, Har-Noy explained. With consistent and accurate information, carriers can better see what is happening to their fleet and where events are taking place. That means fewer surprises and more opportunities to optimize flight and crew scheduling. The geospatial data can even help find efficient routes.

Airport operators can also benefit from ADS-B information as they manage the complicated dance of preparing gates and dispatching ground crews. Information about worldwide flight activity can help airports identify events in distant regions that might affect operations on their runways.

From global networks to local planning with geospatial intelligence

Logistics and supply chain managers can also leverage geospatial information to streamline operations. Their need for data has rarely been greater. As Covid-19 demonstrated, the world’s supply chains are intertwined and at risk of sudden disruption.

“Flight tracking data can help logistics and supply chain managers enhance their view of operational networks, particularly when paired with maritime information,” explained Johan Alex Varghese, senior product marketing manager at Spire Aviation. For day-to-day operations, ADS-B data can help logistics companies that focus on air cargo to track and trace freight, stay abreast of disruptions, and build contingency plans. And for long-term strategies, the analysis of flight traffic can help supply chain managers identify patterns in the movement of people and goods.

“Local governments and urban planners would also do well to include ADS-B into their geospatial intelligence,” suggested Varghese. He pointed out that flight paths are important when studying noise levels and zoning neighborhoods. And the datasets can help illustrate trends in travel and tourism, a vital industry for any city.

Protecting the world

Epidemiologists and health experts have long included air travel in outbreak modeling and monitoring. Their responses to Covid-19 were no different. For example, in 2020, the RAND Corporation developed an analytical tool to predict the risk of importing Covid-19 that combines infection rates and air traffic data. And the International Society for Infectious Diseases plans to incorporate flight data into its next tool for infectious disease outbreak forecasting.

“With this in mind, ADS-B from satellites can be a rich resource for health experts studying the spread of diseases,” said Varghese. It offers nuanced and reliable data about the movement of people around the world. The high temporal resolution makes it ideal for monitoring evolving dangers and feeding threat matrixes. Meanwhile, the rich historical datasets are prime for research or training models.

In fact, United Kingdom-based SATAVIA uses Spire aircraft tracking data in its model for forecasting Covid-19 transmission risks along air bridges. The solution helps experts estimate the impact of opening and maintaining travel corridors.

“SATAVIA uses aircraft tracking data from Spire Aviation to enable live and historical analysis of aircraft movements,” said the company’s CEO, Dr. Adam Durant.

Spire’s constellation has geospatial data covered

Spire operates a constellation of over 100+ nanosatellites fitted with advanced sensors. This space-based network captures ADS-B signals across the planet, tracking aircraft even while they cross oceans, deserts, and mountains. On average, Spire’s combination of satellite and terrestrial-based data captures over 200 million positional updates and tracks over 150,000 flights per day.

The data logs more than an aircraft’s position and status. It includes aircraft type and airline data, flight and airport records, gate and terminal details, and more. All of this information is delivered on real-time and historical APIs that integrate with workflows, helping customers build advanced products.

“We are just scratching the surface of what you can do by analyzing ADS-B data,” said Har-Noy.

Plantholt recently became the head of strategy and business development at Spire Aviation, and he already has a vision for how Spire can better serve its customers and lead the industry. We spoke with him to learn more about the virtues of space-based tracking and where he sees the greatest opportunities. The conversation has been edited for clarity and length.

Spire: What is the benefit of using satellites for aircraft tracking?

Plantholt: Coverage and reliability are the main benefits. They overcome one of the major issues with terrestrial networks, which is gaps and fluctuating performance. You can’t place ground sensors everywhere on the planet, but you can monitor the entire Earth from space.

And there is another benefit of Spire’s constellation. It’s built on nanosatellites. These devices don’t have a hundred million dollar price tag, so we can upgrade and improve the constellation more rapidly than if we were using expensive legacy devices. We won’t get stuck with decades-old tech.

Also, it’s not just aircraft that Spire is monitoring. The devices track the weather, ships, and information about the earth. We can show that various industries rely on our services and technology, and we have anchor clients in each. It shows we’ve been here, we’ve done it, we have customers, we have invested thousands of hours in engineering and designing satellites, and we have years of satellite operations experience serving various industry vertices.

How do you imagine that combination of data and expertise helping the aviation industry?

There is strong overlap between weather and aviation. Monitoring and forecasting high wind is a key component of online flight route optimization, which can help save fuel and costs. Imagine a solution that tells you to change your altitudes to more favorable winds 1000 meters up. That kind of opportunity isn’t fully exploited yet. But a combination of aviation tracking and aviation weather can lead to it. Particularly for long flights, which burn lots of fuel and tend to traverse remote areas, where satellite data helps improve forecasting.

There are also opportunities to enhance airport and airspace operations with aircraft tracking and weather solutions. With better predictions, there shouldn’t be any reason to waste time and resources having an airplane circling for fifteen minutes over London on a Friday afternoon. Of course, there will always be unforeseen interruptions, but we can help prevent operational bottlenecks by making processes better. That’s one of the big ones.

What are you excited about for the future?

Air mobility solutions. I think transport drone services might carry you to a central station in town sooner than you think. A lot of people say, “It’ll never happen. There’ll never be ten thousand units flying over our heads.” But people also said self-driving cars would never be on the street by 2020. Those units will need tracking, and they will need to integrate with commercial aviation as we know it today. So no matter what, there is a huge market about to come around the corner that will create demand for aircraft tracking, related systems, infrastructures, and applications.

Drones, too. Small consumer and delivery drones might not use ADS-B—to prevent overcrowding the signal—but an operator of a huge network of delivery drones will still need to know aircraft locations to avoid conflict and better plan and execute operations. A reliable satellite-based tracking system will be critical for their operations.

It sounds like there are a lot of opportunities.

Today, flight tracking data is used across the board – from flight operations, geospatial intel, border management, applications development, financial analysis, travel analytics, tourism, and more. It helps drive innovation and address some of the biggest challenges facing the aviation industry, from adapting to a post-Covid-19 world to improving safety, sustainability, and efficiency. And since it’s still relatively untapped, companies that choose to leverage this data have a secret weapon in their arsenal.

Air Traffic Then and Now

The Wright brothers may have first flown planes as early as 1903 but the aviation industry really only took off in the years following the First World War. In 1920, air traffic control was introduced for commercial flights at London’s air terminal in Croydon. Using a system that looks very rudimentary by today’s standards, the controller would give the pilot a red or green light for take-off and acknowledge position reports sent by radio. Safety was becoming a growing concern in the US too, following a number of mid-flight collisions and in 1935, the first air control centre was established in Newark, New Jersey.  We’ve come a long way since, with millions of passengers being safely transported day to day.

Thanks to today’s air traffic control services, airlines and airports are able to operate with greater efficiency. They’re able to make the most of capacity while maintaining safety standards and reducing fuel consumption to drive down operating costs and environmental impact.

Versatility of Air Traffic data

Air traffic data goes far beyond air traffic management. Here’s how –  our partners are now able to capture and process more data at speed, using machine learning, AI, and predictive modeling, opening up new avenues for data usage in both the commercial and non-commercial worlds. It’s now possible to crunch petabytes of data in near real-time and use the analytics to inform decision-making and gain a competitive advantage.

Image: Showing how Satavia used Spire Aviation Data to predict imported daily infections from key destinations with quarantine exemptions in England in 2020

Air traffic data enables air freight companies to plan more efficient logistics operations, while aircraft operators are able to more accurately predict and schedule maintenance work. Not just that, our flight tracking data also drives:

• Product innovation: Flight tracking data becomes a key ingredient that reveals actionable insights enabling new product features and development.
• Cost efficiency: Reducing data costs, including moving data from on-premise servers to the cloud, as well as sector-specific cost savings such as an airline optimising its crew schedules.
• Decision-making: Valuable analytics provide deep insights that inform decisions and address challenges in commerce, travel, logistics, aviation and so on.

The aviation industry uses data science to make sense of vast amounts of data and automate, streamline, and optimize operations such as crew management, communication, fuel consumption and much more. The application of predictive analytics is also critical for air safety, with airline operators combining data from sources such as air traffic controllers’ and pilots’ reports, as well as the aircraft themselves to detect patterns and potential safety concerns.

OEMs (Original Equipment Manufacturers) are kitting out aircraft with more sensors to capture more data than ever, while cloud-based platforms like Spire’s allow operators to pull multiple data sources into a single secure environment. It’s now possible for on-board maintenance systems to detect a fault and automatically schedule an engineer and order parts, increasing safety and minimising flight disruption. And this is all thanks to aviation data and the means to analyse it fast.

The Fourth Dimension: Data From Space

Adding to this rich pool of information is our own data, captured on the ground and by our constellation of more than 30+ nanosatellites operating in low-Earth orbit. Our satellites capture global aircraft movements from space using ADS-B signals, even when the aircraft is flying over oceans, deserts, mountains, and most regions where there is no ground-based tracking available. From this we can generate versatile datasets – by mapping aircraft position and status along with aircraft type and airline data, flight and airport Information, gate and terminal information – delivered using our real-time and historical data APIs.

Terrestrial data is unable to provide coverage when it comes to aircraft flying over oceans, seas and remote areas. This is where satellite data comes in – no matter how remote the area is – this provides a greater level of detail and tracking which can be utilized by ASPs, OEMs, consultants and more for unmatched situational awareness. Moreover, if the satellites are small and nimble LEMURs like ours, the price-point is friendly as well.

Helping the Travel and Tourism Industry to Fly High

Covid-19 is reported to have cost travel and tourism $ 935billion in the first ten months of 2020 alone. As you read this, the situation is far from certain, and many are pinning their hopes on a successful vaccine roll-out and pent-up consumer demand to fuel the recovery. When that will happen is not yet clear, but from the start of the pandemic, flight tracking data has helped us to understand changes in capacity and demand – allowing the travel industry to shape its strategies accordingly.

 

Even by doing something as simple as capturing flight patterns using satellite and terrestrial data for a single airline- as we did with Wizz Air last summer – we gain a deeper and more granular view of passenger trends and are therefore able to spot signs of shifting travel patterns. Sure enough, we discovered that in the midst of a pandemic, the number of Wizz Air flights jumped from 16 on May 2nd, 2020 to 32 on June 6th. As countries emerge from lockdowns at different speeds, and entry requirements change, travel operators and the hospitality industry will need to keep a close eye on flight activities to determine their investment and operational strategy across regions.

Supporting Regulators, OEMs and MROs

Having undergone the required changes, following two fatal crashes, the Boeing 737 Max was cleared to fly in late 2020 but its return has been staggered to demonstrate its safety.

March 10-16, 2020: The week when MAX was grounded:

Spire data reveals a clear timeline, as the groundings were enforced one after the other by countries around the world (visual left). Following the Ethiopian crash on March 10, regulators started grounding the MAX. Within a week, the daily MAX flights dropped from 1,400 to zero. There were a little over 300 MAX aircraft flying worldwide up until the crash.

Using our air traffic data, we tracked the 737 Max’s first training and passenger flights and highlighted its return-to-service across different countries, enabling airlines to anticipate, prepare, and manage fleet capacity more effectively. OEMs and MROs (maintenance, repair and operation) can also analyze routes flown by their aircraft, and predict what the maintenance requirements are by tracking individual aircraft usage and flight patterns.

Air traffic data: Meeting soaring demand for cargo and logistics services

With the appetite for air cargo services growing, freight operators are looking for new and innovative ways to increase capacity in the supply chain. The world’s largest cargo plane, the Antonov AN-225 Mriya, has become operational again and has been helping to meet some of this demand, particularly during the pandemic when it delivered a record-breaking eight million masks (more than 1,000cbm of cargo) to France.

But the real ‘workhorse’ of the industry is still the B747F, prized by airlines for its lifting capacity, four engines and ability to transport long items. Our flight statistics for air cargo showed that cargo flights soared well above passenger flights and ended the year higher than pre-Covid-19 levels. As well as measuring cargo flight activity, we’re able to identify major logistics hubs and drill down to the type of aircraft used – so operators can understand and utilise capacity effectively in line with demand. It is then no surprise to learn that the top 10 Boeing 747F operators in the world, are also some of the largest cargo airlines of 2020.

Air traffic data helps airline network and fleet strategy

Covid-19 has completely turned business models around, forcing airlines to adapt to enormous and unexpected shifts in consumer demand. Large-capacity aircraft, which once benefited from economies of scale, are all but impossible to fill in the current climate and they’re expensive to maintain, too. Moreover, questions remain about whether their environmental impact will make them unusable in the future. It is clearly evident that even the biggest airlines in the world are grounding the larger A380s and B747s most of them permanently.

Top 10 B747F airlines by flights (2020):

Atlas Air, UPS, Cargolux are among the largest operators of the B747F Fleet. Cargo operators such as Silk Way Airlines, Atlas Air, Air Bridge Cargo and Cargolux have become the stars of logistical efforts to support first responders around the world. And they’re all flying the Boeing 747F.

Mapping flights during the first wave of the pandemic meant airlines could see how devastating it had been on their industry but a few players used this to their advantage –  for instance, SouthWest Airlines was thereafter able to to pre-empt the short-lived recovery and ramp up its operations. The move paid off and it went on to take its place among the world’s top 10 airlines by number of seats offered.

Air Traffic Data: At the Forefront of Tech Innovation

The appetite for data – particularly with flight tracking – within the aviation industry has paved the way for an explosion of tech start-ups (or application service providers – ASPs) developing innovative solutions to help companies leverage its value.

One of these is myairops, which uses aviation data to develop a cloud-based solution to help organizations manage complex challenges in different sectors such as crew management, maintenance and more. Here’s a quick look at how they do it.

Last, but certainly not least, data analytics and AI specialist SATAVIA is using its expertise to drive up sustainability across the aviation industry. Combining artificial intelligence, data science, and aerospace engineering, the Cambridge-based tech firm embeds our global aircraft movement data (ADS-B data) feed in its cloud-based decision-making platform, DECISIONX, and enriches it with weather and maintenance datasets to help operators manage their assets more efficiently.

Conclusion

Whatever industry you work in, the events since the pandemic have disrupted every data model and business operation as we knew it. When the Covid-19 crisis began to escalate at the start of last year, our flight tracking data immediately showed the rippling effect of enforced travel restrictions starting in China in late January. Later, as lockdowns began to ease, we were able to demonstrate not just that the aviation industry was recovering but which areas were proving to be most resilient.

With evermore powerful satellites and processing capabilities, companies can map historic trends and deliver data analytics, giving them a strong competitive advantage. What’s changing is the availability of air traffic data; we’re now able to capture and process more of it, rapidly and cost-effectively, so it delivers faster returns in the real world. Since the data is also available via easy to integrate APIs, the time burden on in-house technical teams is minimal. Developers simply plug flight tracking realtime and historical APIs into existing systems and workflows, enabling end-users to quickly and easily access the analytics on the platform they use.

The aviation industry is at a critical juncture, and the road to recovery after the pandemic could be long and painful. On top of that, there are plenty more long-standing challenges to contend with too, from mitigating the impact of climate change to responding to shifts in consumer habits. AI and data analytics are central to the new model, allowing organizations to spot disruption sooner, accurately gauge its impact, and make intelligent decisions.

We’ve barely scratched the surface of how air traffic data has gone from a means of managing airspace and preventing collisions to creating valuable datasets that reduce operational risk, drive up efficiency, and support business growth.

When the only certainty is uncertainty, turn to data

Few understand how many uncertainties the aviation industry confronts while delivering reliable services. Oil price fluctuations, currency changes, geopolitical crises, economic turmoil, and regulation shifts were conditions airlines had come to expect. And then Covid-19 hit.

While no one knows what comes next, everyone is trying to plan for the future while grappling with budgets that are tighter than ever. Decision-makers have their work cut out for them. For support, aviation organizations can turn to data. It helps companies across the sector optimize operations and innovate with evidence-based decisions. And it helps amplify existing operations with new efficiencies.

“While traditional sources of competitive advantage for airlines such as cost base, scale, network, and product will continue to be important,” the Boston Consulting Group said in a report, “we believe that increased use of data science and advanced analytics will help airlines reinforce these sources of advantage to deliver substantial performance improvements.”

The opportunities for capitalizing on data are growing, especially within an industry that has traditionally been slower to embrace digital opportunities.

Modern airplanes collect as many as 400,000 data points per flight, monitoring everything from engine performance and aircraft systems to external factors like weather. And that’s just in the air. Carriers, immigration bureaus, manufacturers, and service providers all create troves of high-value data. Dubai International Airport, for example, captured 27 billion data points in just six months.

The applications of this data universe are as varied as its sources. Organizations use it for streamlining maintenance, tracking performance, boosting customer experience, and assessing risk—often reducing costs along the way.

For inspiration, here are three success stories that demonstrate how data can be used to tackle uncertainty and come out on top…

myairops

Each sector of the aviation industry, from crew management to part maintenance, comes with its own set of challenges and regulations. And they change constantly.

myairops helps organizations manage these complexities with efficiency-boosting, cloud-native solutions that run on real-time data. Its suite spans the breadth of the aviation industry’s needs. And it recently started integrating Spire Aviation’s aircraft positioning information into its platform, with weather data to follow in the future.

The results have been promising for myairops’ clients, too. Spire’s data combined with myairops’ expertise offers customers capabilities for advanced decision-making not possible without real-time information.

 

A brighter future ahead

The next few months will be trying for everyone in the aviation industry, but according to a recent study, most professionals see data analytics and digitization as a route to recovery. Better yet, the data programs initiated today will yield new value and save costs well into the future. To take full advantage of this opportunity, the Boston Consulting Group states that “data and advanced-analytics capabilities are high on the agenda,” suggesting that the industry should “prioritize investments in this area.”

Spire Aviation can help you get started or amplify your existing solutions, just as we supported the three companies introduced above to reduce costs, while developing innovative solutions. Our global air traffic data is collected by an advanced nanosatellite constellation and other terrestrial receivers, and it can be customized to suit your unique needs.

On 25^th January there were 8,730 aircraft flying in the western European skies, whereas three months later on 25^th April that number had dropped to just 4,980. This region is home to the three big European legacy airlines: British Airways, Air France KLM, and Lufthansa. Wondering what happened in other regions? During that period, many airlines grounded large numbers of their fleets across the globe. Although, airline activity in Europe hit rock bottom only around mid April, the three largest airlines in China had already grounded majority of their fleet weeks earlier.

How has all this affected carbon emissions?

Aircraft carbon emissions have been in the news lately, and not in a good way. This New York Times article’s headline is a case in point: ‘Worse than anyone expected’: Air travel emissions vastly outpace predictions.

With the pandemic causing such a decline in traffic around the world, you may have wondered, “How has this drop in traffic affected CO₂ emissions?” We’ve put together an aviation-focused analysis that might help put this drop in more real-world terms. To get this estimate, we used Spire Aviation air traffic data and general statistics⁽¹⁾ on average aircraft and passenger car emissions.

Aircraft detected over the Western European region on 25^th January, is estimated to have produced 700 million kilograms of CO₂ emissions (considering an average daily aircraft utilization of 10 flight hours). This is equivalent to carbon emissions produced by 61 million cars in a single day! To put this in perspective, Germany has about 48 million passenger cars, France has about 34 million and the UK has about 35 million.

The 43% drop in air traffic over Western Europe, combined with shorter daily utilization of aircraft during covid times, resulted in an approximately 70% decrease in daily carbon emissions. A whopping 500 million kg less CO₂ ! This drop in aircraft carbon emissions alone was equivalent to taking 43 million cars off the road, which is more than all the cars in France or the UK.

Still not enough?

Surprisingly, even with such a huge drop in carbon emissions, many experts are saying such a drop, even if continued, still wouldn’t be enough to avoid the worst impacts of climate change estimated to occur.

There is a rising opinion that the pandemic, for all of its pain, may be the best time to think more about the impact of travel on global warming. In fact, experts have used the improvements in environmental conditions, like air quality for example, as proof that the environment could be greatly improved by lessening air and car travel. The Guardian article, “Is the Covid-19 crisis the catalyst for greening the world’s airlines?”, emphasizes the need for climate based accountability when bailing out airlines.

“If public funds are used to save companies, there is a growing argument that society should get something in return in terms of environmental improvements.” – The Guardian

Part of that self-examination and improvement effort can be to retire older generation aircraft which are less fuel efficient. Some airlines are also getting rid of their largest aircraft due to lower travel demand likely being the new normal for a while. Currently, many flights are nearly empty!

Returning to normal…

While Covid-19 effects on the travel and aviation industries are devastating, as we return to more normal traffic patterns, businesses and governments must continue thinking about ways to reduce environmental impacts and turn operations more efficient.

If we learn anything from this pandemic, maybe it’s that we need to question what “normal” means now. Is it “normal” to continue on a path that will be disastrous for our planet?

 

An eco-friendly link to the logistic chain

Imagine for a moment an agricultural supply chain management company that specializes in moving fresh produce from the United States to Europe. After years of success and growth, the organization—let’s call it AgMove—decides to build on its positive momentum by officially going green. The decision will not only be good for the environment, but it will also generate brand awareness and cost savings from fuel reductions.

Going green puts AgMove in good company. About 40 percent of businesses consider resource management programs the “right thing to do,” according to a study from Deloitte, and nearly 70 percent reported dedicating maximum effort to these programs. But adopting green practices is no easy task, especially for an agricultural supply company with global operations.

Data can help.

Returning to our example, AgMove discovers that trustworthy information and tools built from robust data can help reduce its carbon footprint without increasing its bottom line. In fact, companies of all types can leverage data to launch innovative environmental strategies that make business sense.

Even the United Nations agrees. “New sources of data, such as satellite data, new technologies, and new analytical approaches,” it said, “if applied responsibly, can enable more agile, efficient and evidence-based decision-making and can better measure progress on the Sustainable Development Goals in a way that is both inclusive and fair.”

As we’ll see, data helps AgMove in the three key steps of green logistics, as identified in Sustainable Supply Chains: measurement, analysis, and mitigation.

Measurement

AgMove has a lot to keep track of. Seafood from the Northeast, grain from the Midwest, and fruits from the South must all be transported by trucks, ships, or airplanes, across multiple U.S. states, then the Atlantic, and finally into Europe. Not to mention the multiple stages of warehousing and inventory.

“Until relatively recently businesses struggled to get a full picture of the impact of their own operations,” John Hsu, an expert in sustainability data, wrote in the Guardian. “But now leading businesses … are trying to understand the entire end-to-end impact of their businesses, throughout the value chain.”

Data can help companies today can achieve a more complete view of operations. In fact, the time is ripe for monitoring and measuring. Satellites and connected devices can help businesses collect a universe of data about activities, from the granular level to the grand scale.

As transportation accounts for one of the most significant portions of emissions in the logistic business, AgMove starts its greening process by measuring and recording data about everything that impacts transportation. It monitors road traffic, vehicle emissions, flight patterns, the weather, shipping routes, and sea conditions. In fact, it measures in detail each leg in a journey that carries an orange from a farm in Florida to a grocery store in Frankfurt.

Spire Global, for example, operates a constellation of nanosatellites that reveal detailed information about vessel routes and conditions that may affect a ship’s journey. It also offers data solutions for airlines and global weather. Details about both subjects can help companies better measure fuel expenditure, transport patterns, and other carbon footprint-impacting factors.

Our maritime services, in particular, helped Gravity Supply Chain gain end-to-end supply chain visibility. With this insight, Gravity was more equipped to make data-driven decisions. Similarly, our AIS data API helps Shipfix users to visualize and analyze the global trade of commodities and products.

“Measuring and understanding how doing business really does affect the natural world will open up new opportunities for bringing sustainability inside an organization,” wrote Hsu.

Analysis

Once AgMove collects high-quality data about its operations it can begin analysis to pinpoint precise opportunities for boosting efficiency. Comparing historical and recent datasets, as well as datasets from multiple categories, helps reveal which operations need the most attention, where they appear along the supply chain, and even new avenues to reduce emissions.

When it comes to logistics transportation, some of the best variables to analyze for opportunities to reduce emissions are route distance and efficiency, mode of transportation, equipment conditions, load planning, and operation planning.

AgMove decides to analyze the weather and flight information of its overnight fresh lobster delivery from Maine to France. The information reveals excess fuel consumption during weather-related delays that force planes to idle on the tarmac or circle in holding patterns.

For AgMove’s orange shipments, comparing land transport with detailed vessel tracking uncovers two points in the logistic chain where fruit sits in emission-heavy trucks and climate-controlled warehouses, waiting to be loaded onto vessels.

Identifying these green opportunities isn’t always easy. As Supply Chain Digital points out, “the challenge for modern supply chains is knowing where to place a strategic focus and not becoming paralyzed by information overload.”

It can help to have a partner who collects and analyzes data.  Data partners can help solve this challenge by providing data solutions that evolve with customers’ needs, so that efforts to go green continue to improve productivity in the long run.

Mitigation

AgMove’s next step to greening its logistics is turning data and analysis into solutions that mitigate emissions. Using data for this process helps ensure its solutions are built on evidence, are targeted, and have the potential to be automated.

In general, supply chain management companies should consider solutions that optimize vehicle routing, incorporate green modes of transport, schedule equipment maintenance, and streamline loading and unloading, according to Sustainable Supply Chains. However, this list is by no means exhaustive.

As AgMove takes this step, it decides to incorporate weather forecasting into its transportation planning. The forecasting helps AgMove predict weather-related delays that impact departure, arrival, and cargo loading. And in turn, avoiding the delays prevents burning excess fuel.

Using historical and up-to-date flight and maritime data, AgMove also plans alternative routes for regions that tend to experience extreme weather during specific times of the year—for example, the Northeast in winter and the Gulf Coast during hurricane season. This decision helps AgMove reduce the chance of fresh goods losses.

AgMove also implements an early warning system with information about when vessels will arrive at ports. The alert notifies its trucking department, so drivers know precisely when to arrive at the dock. This system saves the trucks from burning fuel while idling outside the ports.

With real-time data, AgMove starts automating these systems. And in both cases, solutions that reduce emissions and waste also help ensure timely delivery.

Spire has already helped clients achieve some of these advantages. Clearmetal optimized costs and operations with a machine learning engine that predicts port arrival using multiple datasets. And a leading dry bulk shipping company, Oldendorff, developed an efficient fuel consumption model using weather and vessel data.

The data is the key

With green practices in place, AgMove can rest assured that it’s meeting its client’s demands and reducing emissions without driving up costs. Its farming partners will certainly welcome a cleaner environment, and they can also use data to help boost performance and implement sustainable practices.

For companies across industries, now is the time to start going green or expand eco-conscious practices already in place. Solutions should become more efficient as technology develops and computing advances, with the multitude of incremental improvements adding up into significant cuts to costs and emissions. The future will thank you for your actions today.

Change by the numbers

According to Flightradar24, the end of January 2020 saw upwards of 116,000+ commercial flights a day, including passenger, cargo, charter, and business jet flights. As of mid-April, those numbers were hovering around 30,800. This includes a 90% drop in passenger air travel.

In addition to creating major upheaval in the travel industry, this dramatic drop in passenger flights jolted global supply chains. Before the recent coronavirus impact, a passenger plane’s hold was around 50% passenger luggage and 50% cargo. With that capacity gone, cargo flights are picking up the slack and seeing a boom in business (even if this chart makes it look like business as usual).

Download sample data

As air cargo demand fell in February by 9.1% globally, you can see cargo aircraft traffic has remained steady (in fact, some cargo airlines are flying even more than before). This is the result of resilient airlines and freight forwarders filling the gap left by grounded passenger jets as well as stepping up to transport urgently needed medical supplies like personal protective equipment (PPE), ventilators, and hand sanitizer.

Private-Public collaboration

In the U.S., the public-private partnership Project Airbridge was established to reduce the medical supply chain capacity gap and speed up shipping of life-saving supplies (transporting goods from overseas factories to the U.S. can take 20-40 days by ship, compared to just 2-3 days by air). Working with Project AirBridge, UPS added 200+ flights in April, shipping protective equipment, ventilators, emergency room monitoring equipment, Coronavirus test kits, and more.

Meanwhile, FedEx delivered its first shipment of 450,000+ Tyvek® protective suits from Vietnam to Texas. In the weeks that follow, the company pledges 500,000+ suits will be shipped each week.

Use of Data Analytics

With such rapid change, data-driven solutions have never been more important. Freight and logistics companies can use data from many sources, including ADS-B air traffic data and weather data, to prepare their businesses for worst-case scenarios and help with crisis management. Similar to how financial trading companies have long recognized that fast and real-time data is key to staying competitive, freight and shipping companies are increasingly realizing that data analytics is key to making their businesses more efficient and future-proof.

Freightwaves is a company that provides market intelligence and data analytics to the global freight industry, for both ocean and air freight. They use Spire Aviation to acquire comprehensive air traffic data and use that data to provide actionable insights to their customers, such as tracking airport delays, determining delay causes, verifying the accuracy of schedules, understanding the impacts of specific company policies, analyzing weather impacts, and more.

In a recent study by the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP), 93% of shippers and 98% of third-party logistics companies said that data analytics is critical to making intelligent decisions, while 71% of them said they believed big data improves quality and performance. It’s a logical deduction that data driven solutions would be rated as even more important during crisis management.

Boom to bust

Humanity entered the supersonic era in 1947 when Chuck Yeager broke through the sound barrier in the rocket-powered Bell X-1 flying over the Mojave Desert. Just thirty years later, supersonic technology moved out of governmental test facilities and into public airliners when the Concorde took off on its maiden commercial voyage.

Unlike Yeager’s rattling flight, taking the Concorde was a glamorous affair. Passengers could leave London after lunch, sip champagne at 60,000 feet while cruising at roughly 1,350 miles per hour, and arrive in New York City in time for dinner.

Despite the luxury and convenience, supersonic flight has been out of reach to the commercial flying public for nearly 20 years. It’s rare for technological progression to halt and reverse, but two practical issues, among others, have kept supersonic transport grounded: cacophonous sonic booms and extreme fuel consumption.

Sonic booms are the thunderous claps that people on the ground hear when an aircraft breaks through the sound barrier. They are loud enough to break glass, as U.S. scientists discovered during test flights over Oklahoma City in the 1960s. These experiments, named Operation Bongo II, generated over 10,000 complaints and led regulators to restrict supersonic flight over land.

Supersonic flights over oceans ran into another problem. Reaching and maintaining Mach speed requires a tremendous amount of fuel. The Concorde burned four times more fuel per passenger than standard commercial airlines. That may have been defensible in the 1970s, but in an environmentally conscious and price-sensitive era, massive fuel costs are difficult to justify.

A tailwind of data

Airlines can start overcoming the issues of supersonic booms and fuel efficiency with the help of advanced aviation location and weather data, as typified by solutions from Spire Aviation.

Today, commercial aircraft carry ADS-B transponders that continuously broadcast location data. Spire’s ground stations and its constellation of nanosatellites, for example, receive tens of millions of position reports a day. This data can help airlines pinpoint the location of planes across the world.

But this was not always the case. In the past, whether or not to equip a commercial aircraft with a satellite communication system was an airline’s prerogative. Planes without the onboard technology made do by checking in at mandatory reporting points, some of which were hundreds if not thousands of miles apart. You can imagine the significant gaps in tracking.

Spire’s constellation of nanosatellites also captures high-resolution, easy-to-use weather data from around the planet. Thanks to radio occultation measurements and a new global weather model, this dataset offers 1,000-foot vertical resolution for flight planning and can help pilots locate optimal winds aloft and patches of clear air turbulence that can cause safety issues to passengers and aircrews.

A combination of the two data solutions can be an asset for any commercial airliner and might prove particularly useful for supersonic transport.

High-resolution weather data that takes into account both location and atmospheric conditions can help pilots plan their flights to remove the threat of sonic booms over populated areas when flying faster than Mach 1, or the speed of sound. With this level of weather insight, supersonic travel over land may once again be possible.

Pilots can also use the data to fly the most fuel-efficient routes, limiting weather-related delays while also using atmospheric conditions to their advantage. Even at supersonic speeds, minor route adjustments can add up to noticeable fuel savings. That means lower costs for airlines and less pollution.

On the horizon

These data solutions are part of a suite of technological developments that could help bring supersonic travel back to our skies. So if you missed your chance to fly the Concorde, do not lament, you may be able to hop on a three-and-a-half-hour transatlantic flight soon.

“I think the new era of supersonic aircraft is coming,” said William Fernandez, vice president of Spire Aviation Business Development, “and I believe that we are one of the new companies in the world that can support them with our weather services and our ADS-B tracking services.”